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EURUSD – The European Central Bank surprised markets mid July when it increased interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rise in over a decade. Due to the Eurozone’s reliance on gas from Russia, the euro is very vulnerable to the events in Ukraine with EUR/USD dropping to parity mid-year whereas it had been approaching 1.15 in early February.
CADUSD – The Ukrainian crisis and the risk on-off market are pushing the Canadian dollar rate up and down in a range around 0.7850 to the US dollar (1 USD = 1.27 CAD). Volatile oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have lead analysts to predict large price movements to continue for the Canadian Dollar.
AUDUSD – Since May the AUD/USD rate has traded in a range between 0.68 and 0.72 as the RBA has acted on a much predicted aggressive increase to interest rates. However, the AUD’s traditional vulnerability to risk leaves it exposed to a broader correction.
USDJPY – The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar. For reference, with USD/JPY hitting 136 in July — a more than 20-Year Low for the yen. Yen weakness against the greenback stems from the interest rate differentials between Japan and the US. The market expects that the Fed Reserve will continue to hike rates aggressively, while the BOJ is committed to low interest rates.
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