This is the current USD-INR mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-INR exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs INR, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Indian Rupee news and forecasts.
26-January-19: 2018 was a reasonable year for the dollar. Measured by the US Dollar Index, the greenback appreciated by 4 percent, which was much better than 2017’s 10 percent loss. It was, though, something of a stuttering end to 2018 and the dollar has had mixed fortunes in early 2019.
In December, after lifting US interest rates to 2.25-2.5 percent, the Fed lowered its expectations for future hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.). Skepticism among analysts over future Fed hikes has for some time been the main reason for dollar pessimism for 2019, but now, there is also the prospect of a US economic slowdown to contend with.
“A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year,” a CIBC researcher said in January.
Of the same opinion was an expert at ING, who argued that the dollar is soon to “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”
January’s extended US government shutdown also has dollar-negative ramifications. Not only is the shutdown likely to hit first-quarter GDP growth, disagreements within Congress bode poorly for the future of potentially inflationary fiscal spending.
6-January-2019: Like other emerging market currencies, the Indian rupee was under significant pressure in 2018, during which it made an all-time low of ₹74.5 to the dollar and fell to a 4-1/2-year low versus the euro, at ₹86.15.
Following a solid fourth quarter, the rupee had risen by early January 2019 to a 4-month high versus the dollar of ₹69.36 — appreciation worth 7 percent from October’s low — and had recovered similarly versus the euro, to ₹79.29.
Among major problems for the rupee last year was the high price of oil, which raised India’s import bill substantially, but as luck would have it, the oil market experienced a complete reversal in Q4. A $30 per barrel (40 percent) plunge in the oil price was a blessing.
Political uncertainty (never good for a currency’s valuation) is likely to emerge in 2019; expectations are for a tough electoral battle for current Indian prime minister Narendra Modi.
Fitch predicted in January a 2019 year-end exchange rate of ₹75 to the dollar on the basis of further current account deterioration and tighter financing conditions.
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