This is the current USD-NZD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-NZD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs NZD, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and New Zealand Dollar news and forecasts.
26-January-19: 2018 was a reasonable year for the dollar. Measured by the US Dollar Index, the greenback appreciated by 4 percent, which was much better than 2017’s 10 percent loss. It was, though, something of a stuttering end to 2018 and the dollar has had mixed fortunes in early 2019.
In December, after lifting US interest rates to 2.25-2.5 percent, the Fed lowered its expectations for future hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.). Skepticism among analysts over future Fed hikes has for some time been the main reason for dollar pessimism for 2019, but now, there is also the prospect of a US economic slowdown to contend with.
“A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year,” a CIBC researcher said in January.
Of the same opinion was an expert at ING, who argued that the dollar is soon to “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”
January’s extended US government shutdown also has dollar-negative ramifications. Not only is the shutdown likely to hit first-quarter GDP growth, disagreements within Congress bode poorly for the future of potentially inflationary fiscal spending.
28-January-19: The New Zealand dollar has begun 2019 well, with small gains against the US dollar ($0.683) and euro (€0.598). The kiwi remains, however, at relatively low levels by the standards of recent years: in percentage terms, it remains down double digits from 2017 highs relative to USD and EUR.
Several months ago, a good portion of analysts agreed that the kiwi was heading higher in 2019 but, as with the Australian dollar, things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that interest rates in New Zealand will stay at a record low of 1.75 percent for a prolonged period. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from New Zealand and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
Those with a need to consider seriously the future value (6-12 months) of New Zealand’s currency should not underestimate how highly correlated it is with the Australian dollar. Though they flex somewhat against each other, against other major currencies, the Antipodes usually move hand in hand. With that said, readers should be worried about a flurry of grim AUD forecasts coming in early 2019. Among such forecasts was that by a BNP Paribas analyst, who predicted that AUD would get “absolutely crucified,” and that by Capital Economics, which predicted a 16 percent AUD decline.
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