Next Crises: China Property plus European Energy shake Currency Markets
Fears Chinese mega developer Evergrande’s collapse will spark a contagion event and the ongoing European gas crisis has hit confidence.
Oil drop hits loonie and peso – FX Volatility returns
Volatility returned to the currency markets last week with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar falling the hardest against the Greenback (both down 1W -3.0%).
RBNZ seen to be the first to hike rates – Boosts Kiwi dollar
Speculation abounds on whether the RBNZ will be the first to hike rates, this helped the NZD to rise to 1 year highs versus the Aussie dollar.
USD boosted by unexpectedly strong job creation in July
Last week’s big event was the strong US Non-Farms Payrolls report for July.
Pound bounces back – Aussie at Lows on Pandemic lockdowns
The British Pound GBP was a mover and shaker last week, hitting HIGHS against both the USD (30-DAY), EUR (90-DAY) and other major FX.
Pound weak on Uncertain Way Out from Lockdown – CAD and USD strong
The way out from the UK’s experiment of lifting most lockdown measures is far from certain.
NZ and Canada central banks shift outlooks
Currency markets move when both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada shift on their bond buying plans and interest rate outlooks.
Aussie volatile on Delta outbreak – Greenback weaker
The growth outlook for the Australian economic became pessimistic when more lockdowns were announced due to rising COVID-19 cases in Sydney.
Jobs Report – US dollar Buy Rumour Sell Fact
US Non-Farm Payrolls report was a mixed result - the Unemployment Rate moved higher but Wages slipped.
AUD to JPY Forecasts 2021
The FX market's bellwether for risk sentiment, AUD/JPY, reached over ¥85 in May 2021.
Fed inflation divisions pulls back US dollar
Fed Officials mixed opinions following last week’s hawkish bent reduces markets perception of sooner rate rises.
US Fed growth forecasts upsets currency markets
Last week the US Federal Reserve moved its growth forecasts higher and brought forward the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023.
European Central Bank casts no fresh clues
Review of Currency Market trends and news from last week.
USD to JPY Forecasts
USD/JPY forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Japanese economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
Japanese yen JPY forecasts 2021
The Japanese yen is a low value currency, against the US dollar it is normally quoted as USDJPY that is the number of yen per 1 US dollar.
Markets Volatile after US Election & Vaccine news
The recent period has been volatile for currency markets tossed about by US election uncertainty, stimulus spending doubts and both good and bad news from the COVID-19 frontline.
Coronavirus panic drives US dollar strength
Currency rates were extremely volatile last week as the coronavirus situation worsened day by day with various countries implementing ever-tougher measures to stop the spread of the disease.
Coronavirus spread fears linger – USD strong – AUD at 11 year lows
This week the US Dollar was touching three-year highs when valued against a basket of major currencies. The greenback's traditional role as one of the safe-haven currencies is helped by a domestic economy that is largely immune to the threats of the coronavirus.
Coronavirus unnerves currency markets
The strong start to the year for "risk-on" currencies is already a distant memory.
New Year Optimism Retreats on US/Iran Tension
The threat of a proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq has pared back some of the recent gains of "risk-on" currencies.
Booming Commodities Can’t Save Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar is at or near multi-month lows against a number of major currencies in spite of a rampant iron ore market — once a great influence on AUD.
Australian Dollar at 4-Month Low After China Announces Tariff Retaliation
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
Mega Bank Ends Cash Remittances
Japanese mega bank MUFG has announced it will end all over-the-counter money transfer services in June of this year in an effort to avert money laundering.
Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rise Most on Hopes for US-China Trade Deal
The Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies have been the best performing majors in recent days. Each has gained nine-tenths of a cent against the US dollar since Thursday, with appreciation fuelled by the market’s upbeat mood towards a potential US-China trade agreement.
Japan Allows Fintech Payments Specialists to Compete with Banks
The Japanese FSA has announced it will finally remove a ¥1 million (US$9,000) cap on cross-border money transfers handled by non-banking entities, paving the way for a major overhaul of Japan’s remittance industry.
Aussie Recovers Following “Flash Crash” but Downtrend Intact
The Australian dollar is back trading in the high $0.69s following a wild and rocky Wednesday night. In just a few minutes, a market “flash crash”—blamed on a surprise earnings warning from Apple and thin liquidity—had taken the Aussie down 3.2 percent to a 10-year low of $0.675.
The Yen Is Flying; AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY at Lowest Since 2016
The yen has entered the New Year in much the same form it exited 2018. It climbed on Wednesday to fresh long-term terms highs against many major currencies and is predicted to strengthen further in both the short and long term.
Undervalued Australian Dollar Higher in 2019 (CIBC); Franc, Yen at Multi-Month Highs on Haven Demand
There’s been no letup over Christmas for the Australian dollar, which continues to threaten the 70-US cents handle. The Aussie may appreciate as high as 78 cents in 2019, an expert has said. Meanwhile, safety-driven inflows have forced the franc and yen much higher, but oil prices continue to weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar.
Stock Market Rout Sends Australian Dollar Tumbling
Against the US dollar, the Australian dollar fell on Friday to within 0.1 percent of October’s low, a break of which will take the currency to its lowest level in more than 2 ½ years. Investors dumped the risk-sensitive Aussie after heavy selling in equities markets and as a US government shutdown became increasingly likely.
US Dollar Posts Worst Day in 7 Weeks After Fed Cuts Interest Rate Forecasts
The US dollar was sold heavily on Thursday in the aftermath of midweek announcements by the Federal Reserve. Though the Fed raised US interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, it lowered its expectations for rate hikes in 2019, to the disappointment of dollar investors.
Australian Dollar Lacks Inspiration Following RBA Minutes, Looks Cheap Versus CAD, JPY
The Australian dollar continues to stagnate in the aftermath of Monday's RBA meeting minutes and ahead of this week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Barring surprises, the Aussie is likely to remain well supported against the British pound, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen.
GBP, AUD, NZD Jump as UK-EU Reach Deal on Financial Services
The mood was buoyant in foreign exchange markets on Thursday following news that the UK has achieved a deal with the EU on financial services that would give London’s banks continued access to European markets post-Brexit. Together with the pound, currencies that benefit from the switch to “risk on,” like the Australian dollar and New […]
Dollar Strikes 16-Month High; Euro FX Down in the Dumps; Mexican Peso Falls Sharply
Developments outside the US allowed for the dollar to appreciate against a basket of currencies to a sixteen-month high on Wednesday. The ICE-maintained US dollar Index, which provides a weighted-mean measure of the greenback’s value against the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and Swedish krona, traded above 97.0 for the second […]
Australian Dollar Steady Despite Risk Aversion, Sterling to Get Wild and Bitcoin Makes Its Move
This week’s flight from risky assets, evident from massive losses in equities, has yet to affect the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. The yen is firmer though, bitcoin has finally broken lower and options traders are paying up for protection against future sterling volatility.
Yen Falls to 9-Month Low and Era of Cheap Money Ends in Hong Kong
The US dollar was the best of the majors on Thursday—it broke to a nine-month high versus the yen and forced a retreat in the Australian dollar back to the low $0.72s. In Hong Kong, commercial lending rates have been raised for the first time in twelve years, indicating the beginning of the end for cheap money in the region.
End of “Accommodative” Monetary Policy Sparks US Dollar Volatility
The Federal Reserve raised the upper level of US interest rates to 2.25 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected, while also dropping longstanding terminology from its statement relating to the “accommodative” level of monetary policy. The dollar was volatile as a result.
Australian Dollar Has Best Week in 9 Months; Sterling Has a Shocker
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
Yen Is Star Performer, Yuan Devalued and Bitcoin Finds a Bottom
The Japanese yen has been the star performer of recent days and by Monday afternoon in London it was once again trading higher against most of the world’s currencies. When last seen, USD/JPY stood at 111.
Yen Weakness Persists and New Zealand Dollar Jumps on Inflation
The yen fell on Monday to two-month lows against the pound and euro, and recovered only slightly from Friday's six-month low against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar surged midway through Tuesday's Asian session after upbeat news on inflation.
Yuan and Australian Dollar Hit by Latest Round of US Tariffs
Traders offloaded Chinese yuan and Australian dollars on Wednesday after the US government said it would introduce 10 percent tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
USD/CAD to Trade at 1.35 on Interest Rate Surprise
The Canadian dollar will weaken to 1.35 to the US dollar should the Bank of Canada surprise investors on Wednesday by keeping interest rates on hold, says the latest research report from BNP Paribas.
Trump Slaps Tariffs on Allies but Calm Prevails Ahead of US Jobs Data
The big news for investors on Thursday was Washington’s confirmation that steel and aluminium products reaching the US from Europe, Canada and Mexico – all important allies – would be subject to trade tariffs. Foreign leaders raged against the decision and announced plans for immediate retaliation. On Tuesday, Washington had already announced tariffs on $50 […]
The Week Ahead for EUR, USD and JPY
Of the world’s major currencies, the euro has been among the hardest hit in recent weeks. A sixth consecutive week of losses has seen EUR/USD fall into the mid-1.16s, to a six-month low; EUR/JPY to the mid-127s, to an eleven-month low; and the past fortnight’s fall in EUR/CHF from levels near 1.20 to 1.155 represents […]
Canadian Dollar at 2-Year Low Versus Euro as Washington Imposes Steel, Aluminium Tariffs
The Canadian dollar is on course for its worst weekly performance in more than a year as traders reassess their exposure to the currency in response to new US trade tariffs, slower economic growth and a softer oil price. At the end of the Asian business week and with much of Friday’s European session already […]
Inflation Leads US Rate Expectations Higher but Dollar Traders Don’t Care
This week’s much-improved US inflation data has had the desired effect on US rate expectations, with the yield on two-year Treasuries climbing again on Friday, as it did on Thursday, to levels above 2.2%. Meanwhile, prices in derivatives markets have adjusted to indicate a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. […]
FX Calm Amid Broader Market Carnage; Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin Benefit
During a week which saw global equity markets suffer their largest losses in two years and broader market volatility pick up, foreign exchange markets were surprisingly calm. A flight to safety benefitted the US dollar, which finished higher against a basket of currencies for the second consecutive week; and the Japanese yen, which at one […]
Dollar Doldrums: USD Suffers Worst Day in 10-Months Despite Pick-Up in Core Inflation
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suffered its worst one-day decline in ten months on Friday in spite of an unexpected acceleration in the rate of core inflation and what appeared to be an upward revision to U.S. interest rate expectations. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, […]
Markets Upbeat Ahead of FOMC and Trump Decision; Korean Won Best in Asia-Pac
Ahead of major announcements in the coming days, investors were in surprisingly good spirits on Wednesday, indicated by a stronger New Zealand dollar, won, rupee and a faltering yen. Weakness in Asia-Pac FX would have been forgiven ahead of Thursday’s announcements by the FOMC (Wednesday in the US and Europe), Bank of England and Donald […]
Asia-Pac Currencies Make Waves Against Euro After ECB Extends Asset Purchases
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
Korean Won at 7-Week High, Canadian Dollar Suffers and ECB to Announce Plans for QE
The South Korean won climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday (a USD/KRW low) of 1123.3 after third-quarter GDP data showed South Korea’s economy growing at its fastest pace in seven years. Third-quarter growth of 1.4% was well above the median estimate of 1.0% and an improvement on second-quarter expansion of 0.6%. […]
Philippine Peso at Eleven-Year Low and Australian Dollar Falls on CPI Miss
The hearts of those holding Philippine pesos were broken on Tuesday after the currency slipped to its weakest level against the dollar in more than eleven years. The peso weakened by 33 centavos to 51.85 per dollar. The peso wasn’t alone in falling against the dollar; most Asia-Pac currencies did the same as the greenback […]
Yen at Weakest Since July Following Abe’s Decisive Win and Strength in EUR/GBP Predicted
Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was the decisive winner in this weekend’s Japanese election, paving the way for a continuation of “Abenomics” and extremely loose monetary policy in the world’s third largest economy. Consequently, the Japanese yen weakened on Monday to levels above 114 per dollar for the first time since July. According to the […]
Yen Unmoved by Exports and NZD Slumps Ahead of Decision on New Zealand’s Future Government
For Asia-Pac currencies, Thursday’s session was dominated by political nervousness in New Zealand and a busy economic calendar. In terms of data, Japan kicked things off a little before 9am in Tokyo with the country’s latest trade figures. Export growth of 14.1% in the year to September matched market expectations, more or less. Exports have […]
The Week Ahead for Asia FX
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
Asia-Pac Gains as Risk Appetite Returns
With the unsurprising exception of the Philippine peso – Asia’s worst performing currency of the year – Asia-Pac’s most actively traded currencies made gains against the US dollar on Tuesday. Although limited, gains were somewhat easy to come by as risk appetite returned after the President of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, held off on formally declaring […]
US Jobs Report Best Ignored as Hurricanes Wreak Havoc on Economic Data; Dollar Flip-Flops
Wow. What a confusing jobs report. The most important economic data release of the month caused flip-flopping in the US dollar on Friday as a decline in US jobs was offset by solid readings for earnings growth and unemployment. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that non-farm payrolls fell by 33,000 in […]
Australian Dollar Has Tough Day; Will Go Easy Ahead of US Payrolls Data
It’s been a tough twenty-four hours for the Australian dollar. The “Aussie” was hammered after Thursday’s woeful retail sales data, which showed that sales declined in August by 0.6% – the biggest fall in four years. To add insult to injury, previously released data for July was revised down to -0.2%, from 0.0%. AUD/USD has […]
US Dollar to Return to Long-Term Decline, Says Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy, John Hardy, has added his name to a list of prominent analysts predicting a difficult fourth quarter for the US dollar. On September 27th, ABN Amro expressed its “strong conviction” on future dollar weakness and Nomura reaffirmed its “structural bearish view,” and now, one week later, we have Hardy, […]
Asian Currencies Have Muted Start to Golden Week
Currencies in Asia have begun the week slowly and also with contrasting performances against the FX majors. Against the dollar, while all of Asia’s ten most active currencies have fallen marginally on Monday morning, many hold slight gains or remain unchanged against the euro. Little movement has been seen against the yen. A mixed bag […]
Citi, ANZ, SocGen: Yen to Suffer as Carry Trade Regains Popularity
Like other low yielding currencies, the Japanese yen is set to weaken in the fourth quarter as a rebound in US political sentiment helps the carry trade regain popularity. At least that is the consensus among banks on Friday. “In the near term we favour being long…against low yielding currencies. As such, we favour buying JPY […]
Asia-Pac Takes a Hit as Fed Sticks to Guns on Rate Hike, Balance Sheet Normalization
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region fell against the US dollar on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would raise interest rates again this year and would begin shrinking its balance sheet in October. The Fed funds rate was left unchanged at its current range of 1–1.25%. Although the majority of economists had […]
New Zealand Dollar Jumps as New Election Poll Suggests National Party Victory
The New Zealand dollar jumped by three-quarters of a percent against many of the majors on Wednesday evening after the latest election poll showed a clear swing in public opinion back towards the incumbent National Party. New Zealand’s general election will take place in three days’ time, on Saturday September 23rd. NZD/USD is now seen […]
ABM Amro Has “Strong Conviction” on Future Dollar Weakness; Predicts 12 percent Rise in AUD and NZD
New forecasts from Dutch bank ABN Amro see continued weakness in the US dollar heading into and throughout 2018. “We have a strong conviction that the US dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend,” said ABN’s Georgette Boele. The dollar will be hardest hit against “growth sensitive and commodity currencies,” according to the bank, which include […]
Sterling Soars, Yen the Casualty at the End of Eventful Week
The British pound rose on Friday to its highest level against the dollar since the UK’s historic ‘Brexit’ vote in June of last year. By lunchtime in London, the pound was buying $1.3616, capping a brilliant fortnight in which it has risen from rates close to $1.29. On minor profit taking, the currency settled back […]
Missile Test Whipsaws Yen and Swiss Central Bank Speaks on Franc
Investors were rattled on Friday morning following the news that North Korea had launched another missile over northern Japan. After traversing the island of Hokkaido, the missile is said to have travelled a further 1200 miles before landing in the Pacific Ocean. The North Korean regime preceded its test with statements that it would “sink” […]
Singapore Dollar Trades Cautiously but Still Reaches 6-Week High Versus Yen
The Singapore dollar has begun the week cautiously. Against the US dollar, having risen on Friday to a one-year high of 0.7493, the currency of Asia’s ‘Lion City’ conceded some ground on Monday and Tuesday, with SGD/USD falling back below 0.745. A retreat in the pair was likely given last week’s approach to major technical […]
USD/JPY Finally Breaks 108 on Hurricane Irma Concerns
The trading week ended as it began, with investors selling the dollar and seeking the safety of the yen and Swiss franc. This time, rather than North Korea, investors have been unnerved by Hurricane Irma – a potentially deadly storm, likely to reach Florida on Saturday evening, that is expected to cause significant economic damage. […]
Asian Currencies Plunge Against CAD After Bank of Canada’s Surprise Rate Hike
To the surprise of many, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday to 1.0%, from 0.75%, which sent currencies in the Asia-Pacific region tumbling against the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada had been expected to raise the cost of borrowing again this year, following a quarter-point hike in July, but most analysts […]
Mixed Opinions on Yen as Currency Gaps Higher Following North Korea’s “Unprecedented” Test
The Japanese yen gapped higher on Monday morning following the test of a hydrogen bomb this weekend by North Korea. The bomb was described on North Korean state media as being one of “unprecedentedly big power.” With current sanctions against Pyongyang seemingly insufficient, in response to the latest provocation, US President Donald Trump said that Washington […]
Data Fails to Lift AsiaPac Currencies
A better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI failed to lift the yuan or Australian dollar on Thursday morning against a US dollar determined to end the month in the green. The Chinese PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 51.7 for August, slightly ahead of the market forecast of 51.3 and July’s reading of […]
Geopolitics Take Centre Stage, Gives Lift to Yen but US Dollar Remains on the Ropes
Investors fled to the safety of gold, government bonds and the Japanese yen on Tuesday as geopolitics took centre stage. After North Korea fired a missile over Japan, money flooded into gold, which rallied to a nine-month high of $1,325, and into yen, which strengthened to the low 108s against the dollar. Prices for Treasuries, […]
Baht’s Climb Not Yet Done, Says New Forecast
Asia’s best performing currency, the Thai baht, isn’t done yet, said both Scotiabank and Standard Chartered in recent days. USD/THB, which has fallen (the baht has risen) 7% this year, is set for a further 7% fall to levels around ฿31 in 2018 according to Standard Chartered, from Monday’s exchange rate of ฿33.25. Analysts at […]
Korean Won Leads Asian Currencies Higher
Most Asian currencies ended Wednesday higher against the dollar, albeit on a rather unspectacular day of trading. With a few exceptions, markets traded quietly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (24-26 August) at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi might give important updates on monetary policy. The star of the day […]
Government Forecasts Add to New Zealand Dollar Woes, Currency at 14-Month Low Versus EUR
The New Zealand government piled misery onto the New Zealand dollar on Wednesday with its announcement that it had revised downward its forecasts for economic growth this year and next. Treasury officials said that growth for the year to June 2017 would likely come in at 2.6%, from earlier expectations of 3.2%, and have forecast […]
Yen Falls as Risk Appetite Returns
The yen fell by nearly a percent yesterday against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall in six weeks – as investors regained their appetite for risk amid an easing of the tense situation surrounding North Korea. The yen, which has long been considered the FX world’s premier safe haven, typically falls in value […]
Little Chance of Another US Rate Hike This Year as CPI Disappoints Again
The implied probability of a further hike in US interest rates this year declined on Friday to 35%, down from probabilities above 40% one day earlier. This fairly drastic adjustment in market expectations for US rates occurred following inflation data which, remarkably, came in below market expectations for the fifth consecutive month. The US dollar […]
Yen at 8-Week High as Investors Flee to Safe Havens and Singapore’s Economy Outperforms
Amid growing tensions between the US and North Korea, investors fled on Thursday to the safety of the Japanese yen, gold and Treasuries. Earlier this week, US president Donald Trump had promised to lay “fire and fury” on North Korea should any attempt be made by the rogue nation to harm the US. Not one […]
Strength in Thai Baht Only Temporary, Says Finance Minister
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
Dollar Has Best Day Since January After Solid Jobs Report
The US dollar ended the week on a high, posting its best day in more than six months following Friday’s solid US employment data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged from levels in the high 92s to the high 93s after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls had risen by 209,000 […]
RBA Stay Put and Moody’s Are Unhappy with South Africa’s Monetary Policy, Rand Falls to Long-Term Lows
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) surprised markets in July when it cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 6.75% – the country’s first rate cut since 2012. Prior to the decision, of the fifty economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg, only three had predicted a move to lower the cost of borrowing. This rate […]
Yuan and Yen Valuations Currently on Point, Says IMF
The IMF said on Friday that the current valuations of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen are broadly consistent with fundamentals. In its latest External Sector Report – a yearly assessment of currency valuations as they relate to each country’s current account balance, external balance sheet, capital flows and reserves – the IMF said that […]
There’s a “Perfect Storm” for Swiss Franc Depreciation, Currency at 18-Month Low Versus Euro
The recent plunge in the Swiss franc continued on Friday with the currency falling to new multi-month lows against several of the other majors. Against the euro, Switzerland’s currency fell to an eighteen-month low of €0.88 (EUR/CHF 1.1363). The franc has fallen in near-vertical fashion this week and the pace of its fall has only […]
“Most important Data Release in Australia” Turns Aussie Dollar Cold, Now a Great Time to Convert AUD
Headline CPI growth in Australia fell below market expectations on Wednesday, disappointing those seeking reasons for potential RBA hawkishness at their August 1st meeting. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday morning that consumer prices rose in the second quarter by just 0.2% – down on the market forecast for 0.4% and below […]
A Scare for NZD as Contagious Disease Is Found in New Zealand Cattle for the First Time
Within the past several hours, a scare relating to the New Zealand dairy industry has caused sudden moves in the New Zealand dollar. Between 1:45pm and 2:15pm (Auckland, GMT+12), NZD/USD, NZD/EUR and NZD/JPY each fell by 0.4% – equivalent to falls of roughly 30 pips, 25 pips and 35 pips respectively. The moves happened quickly […]
Yen Falls After BoJ Admit Defeat on Inflation and Can’t Stop Australian Dollar as Currency Approaches 0.80 vs. USD
Officials at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said today that they were pushing back the time frame for achieving their 2% inflation target to the end of 2019, marking yet another defeat in the bank’s long-term battle against deflation. When the target was introduced by BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013, it was forecast that […]
Korean Won Holds Yellen-Inspired Gains After Interest Rate Decision
The Korean won gained nearly 1% against the US dollar yesterday and by doing so recorded its best day since April. USD/KRW ended the New York session at 1137.4. The move took the won’s 2017 gain against the dollar to 6%. Against the euro, the won gained 1.4% – its best day since November – […]
A Strong Baht Concerns Thailand’s Exporters, Currency Reaches 17-Month High Versus Yen
Thailand’s baht remains one of Asia’s best performing currencies this year. Against the US dollar, the baht has gained more than 5% in 2017 and is now buying $0.029, putting it back at 2015 levels. Against the Japanese yen, although the baht has gained only half as much in percentage terms as it has against […]
Yen Falls for Fourth Consecutive Week as BoJ Works to Drive Rates Down, Says Will Buy an “Unlimited” Number of JGBs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a battle to maintain extreme levels of monetary policy stimulus – a battle which, to win, must necessarily weaken the Japanese yen. On Friday, the yen locked in its fourth consecutive weekly loss against the US dollar, its seventh such loss against the New Zealand dollar, and it […]
Taiwan Dollar Rally Is Set to End, Says Survey
By rallying 6.5% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, the Taiwan dollar so far claims the crown of 2017’s best performing Asian currency. The Taiwan dollar’s rally is likely to have ended however, according to the results of a Bloomberg survey of foreign exchange traders who were asked their views […]
Will the RBA Follow Hawkish Lead Set by Other Central Banks?
At 04:30 GMT on Tuesday, traders will learn the latest decision on interest rates by Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The decision will also be accompanied by a statement from the bank. While rates are expected to be unchanged at their record low of 1.5%, there is a sense of anticipation […]
Yen Falls Intra-Day After Japan’s Ruling Party is Crushed in Tokyo Election
With all votes counted, it has been confirmed that Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has been crushed in Sunday’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election. The TMA is the prefectural parliament of Tokyo and its members are elected every four years. The LDP, who are led by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, won […]
Yen Falls to 1-Month Low Ahead of Yellen Speech
“Hedge funds are selling yen this week, and positive comments from Yellen could give them an excuse to sell even more,” said Kaneo Ogino of FX research group Global-Info Co yesterday. Ogino’s comments came at the end of yesterday’s New York session which ended with the yen trading at ¥111.84 against the dollar, marking a […]
Yen Threatens Major Level Against THB, Falls to Multi-Month Lows vs. NZD and AUD Following Surprise Japanese Trade Deficit
The market received surprising trade data from Japan on Monday. What had been expected as a ¥43 billion trade surplus for the month of May was actually a deficit of ¥203 billion. April’s surplus had been ¥480 billion. The data came as a surprise to many given that the Japanese economy had seemingly been picking […]
Australian Dollar Falls but Recovers Following Moody’s Downgrade of Australia’s Top Banks
On Monday, US ratings agency Moody’s cut its credit ratings on Australia’s four largest banks by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1. The banks – Westpac, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank – retain their “investment grade” status but are no longer top-rated by the agency. Less well known, smaller banks that were downgraded […]
Yen to Fall Most Versus New Zealand Dollar, Says Bank of America Merrill Lynch After BoJ Maintains Status Quo
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) stuck with the status quo on Friday, choosing to preserve extreme monetary policy stimulus with the goal of boosting Japanese growth and inflation. Inflation, which has been the bane of central bankers in Japan for much of the past two decades, remains low. Statistics Japan said in May that annualized […]
New Zealand Dollar Finally Turns Following FOMC and Weaker Than Expected GDP
A combination of this morning’s FOMC meeting and weaker than expected GDP data pushed the New Zealand dollar down against a broad group of currencies on Thursday. Data released by Stats NZ on Thursday morning showed that GDP rose 0.5% in the first quarter, which although higher than a 0.4% print in the fourth quarter, was comfortably […]
Australian Dollar Unmoved by Fall in Consumer Sentiment
This morning, investors learned that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute (WMI) survey of Australian consumer sentiment fell last month by 1.8% and remained in “pessimist” territory for the seventh consecutive month. The survey is seen by many analysts as an important gauge of the Australian public’s willingness to spend, which is itself an important driver of the […]
South Africa’s Rating Downgraded Again but Currency Remains Stable
On Friday, US ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of South Africa to Baa3 from Baa2 and assigned the country a negative outlook. The rating change concludes a review of South Africa by the agency which began on April 3rd. A Baa3 rating keeps South Africa at “investment grade” with Moody’s, one notch […]
New Zealand Dollar Strength Continues, Reaches 7-Month High vs. Canadian Dollar
The New Zealand dollar was the best performing of the FX majors in May. By the month’s end, the currency had gained 2.9% against the US dollar, beating a resurgent euro, which gained 2.6%, into first place. The rapid appreciation of New Zealand’s currency, which has been attributed by Citi Bank to improving trade, strength […]
US Dollar Index Falls to 7-Month Low on Poor Jobs Data
The US dollar fell across the board yesterday and the Dollar Index (USDX/DXY) fell to 96.67 – its lowest in nearly seven months – following a highly disappointing US jobs report. For traders, the monthly report, which includes numbers for US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings growth, as well as the unemployment and participation rates, […]
New Zealand Dollar Is Best Performer in May but Big Bank Predicts Lower Value Ahead
Of the FX majors, the New Zealand dollar has been the best performer in May. At the end of yesterday’s New York session, with NZD/USD at 0.754, the pair is up 2.9% since May 1st. By comparison, the kiwi’s closest cousin, the Australian dollar, is down 0.5% against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar […]
Dollar Battered and Fed Rate Hike in Doubt as Trump Jolts Markets
The likelihood of a US rate hike in June is falling fast, as is the US dollar. Just one week ago, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve hiking US interest rates at next month’s meeting – a probability derived from prices in Fed funds futures contracts – stood near 85%. As of Monday, that probability had […]
Korean Won Makes Its Move, Malaysia in Focus and Hong Kong Dollar Still Falling
The Korean won finally made its move yesterday away from the 1130-to-1140 range against the US dollar. The exchange rate for USD/KRW had been trapped between the two prices for much of the previous ten trading days. At the end of yesterday’s New York session – the traditional end of the FX trading day – […]
Traders Bought the Rumour, Sold the Fact as Euro Falls Slightly on Macron Victory
Former Rothschild banker and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is the new French president. Macron secured almost precisely two-thirds of yesterday’s vote (66.06%) and, in doing so, easily fended off his competition, Marine Le Pen, who secured one-third (33.94%). At 39, Macron will become France’s youngest ever president. He also becomes the first president since 1958 […]
Euro Is Flying Ahead of French Vote, Markets No Longer Concerned About Le Pen
Judging by asset prices, investors are no longer concerned about a Marine Le Pen victory in Sunday’s French election. As of writing, at 05:20 GMT on Friday morning, the euro is buying almost 1.1 US dollars (EUR/USD 1.0989) and is at its highest level against the ‘greenback’ since November-9th, the day of Donald Trump’s surprise […]
Australian Dollar Little Changed Following RBA
Little was expected from today’s RBA announcement, and little was delivered. Interest rates in Australia were kept at record lows of 1.5%. Changes in Australian dollar exchange rates pre and post-RBA have been minimal. As of writing, a little more than three hours after the RBA’s announcements, both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are slightly lower from […]
Scotiabank: Four Conditions for Asian Currency Appreciation in 2017
On Friday, Scotiabank – otherwise known as the Bank of Nova Scotia – outlined four factors that would drive Asian currencies higher in 2017. Investors would “pour funds” into Asian markets on the following grounds: 1) If the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank continue with their stimulus programs, providing “accommodative” levels […]
Three in a Row for Japanese CPI Growth and Trump Pantomime Continues
Japan’s National Core CPI – an inflation reading that strips out volatile food prices – has risen on an annualized basis for the third consecutive month. For the year ending March-17, core CPI grew 0.2%, matching February’s figure and improving on January’s 0.1%. Although the rate of growth appears slight, it is a welcome development […]
Aussie Falls on CPI Miss and Hong Kong Dollar Slide Continues, Now at Fourteen-Month Lows
Within the past hour, the Australian dollar has fallen sharply following weaker than expected CPI data. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that consumer prices grew 0.5% in the first-quarter of 2017 and at an annualized rate of 2.1%. AUD/USD fell from 0.7539 to 0.7508 on the news and, as of writing, trades […]
Yen to Weaken Against US Dollar in Coming Months, Says Citi Bank, and US Protectionism Begins with Trump’s Canadian Lumber Tax
In their latest weekly foreign exchange report, US giant Citi Bank have predicted a rise to 118.0 in USD/JPY in the coming 6-12 months, representing a 7% fall in the dollar buying power of the yen. The yen will depreciate against the dollar as US Treasury yields rebound following future announcements on US fiscal stimulus […]
Euro Jumps to Multi-Month Highs Vs. USD, NZD and AUD: Markets See Macron as Near Certainty for French Presidency as He Faces Le Pen in Election Second Round
There’s only one story in town this morning – the battle for Europe’s future, otherwise known as the French general election. As had been predicted for many months, the pro-Europe, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and the far-right, Eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen have made it through to the head-to-head second round of voting, to take […]
Get Your New Zealand Dollars This Year Rather Than Next, Suggests Bank’s Latest FX Forecasts
Yesterday, ABN AMRO released their latest FX forecasts for 2017 and 2018. There were few notable revisions, nor was there much in the way of standout predictions, with the exception of one – NZD/USD to rise to 0.80 in 2018. The ‘kiwi’ hasn’t traded at or above 0.80 against the US dollar since October 2014. […]
Dollar Plays Catch Up, European Elections to Begin and Pleasant Surprises on China Data
The US dollar has started the week lower against most currencies as traders play catch up following market holidays on Friday. In Friday’s market update at BestExchangeRates.com, we described how March’s US core inflation fell month-on-month for the first time in seven years, but with many investors away for the Good Friday holiday, we also […]
Bank of America’s Yen Recommendation Proven Wrong Within Hours Amid Markets’ Flight to Safety
The theme in financial markets on Tuesday was, once again, of re-positioning into safe haven assets on heightening geopolitical risk. The day saw North Korean state media warn of a nuclear strike on the US if provoked, which was followed by a tweet from president Donald Trump saying that the rogue nation was “looking for […]
Philippine Peso Starts Q2 with a Bang
In recent days, the Philippine peso has done what other Asian currencies were unable to, and that’s to make gains against the US dollar in an environment of heightened geopolitical risk – an environment normally associated with a sell-off in emerging market currencies. The peso gained again on Monday following up on its superb performance […]
A Big Increase in the Yen Is Coming, Says Analyst at Investment Bank
The probability of a significant appreciation of the Japanese yen in the coming weeks has increased substantially, at least according to Georgette Boele, coordinator of FX strategy at Dutch banking group ABN Amro. In the bank’s latest update on markets, Boele points to factors such as the Federal Reserve’s plans for significant balance sheet reduction […]
US Dollar Resilience Forces AUD/USD below 75.00 and Indian Rupee Skyrocketing
Despite what has been described by CNBC as a “shocker” of a US jobs report on Friday and a US attack on Syria – a move certain to have geopolitical ramifications – the US dollar ended the week strongly. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell toward 110.10 early in the day on news of […]
Yen Jumps as US Missiles Strike Syria
Within the past several hours, safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and gold have jumped, and stocks have fallen, following a US military strike on a Syrian airbase. The launch of fifty Tomahawk cruise missiles from US Navy warships in the Mediterranean Sea was ordered by President Donald Trump. The decision to strike an […]
Australian Dollar / Yen Outlook: ‘Aussie’ Strong Enough to Halt the Yen’s Advance at 84.00
Following last week’s broad strength in the Japanese yen – strength that produced a sharp fall in AUD/JPY from 87.00 to 84.00 – Australian dollar bulls will today be breathing a sigh of relief following the yen’s inability to break further below the 84 handle. At the end of New York’s FX session on Tuesday […]
World First’s selection of 11 global events for sports lovers in 2016
A new year brings a wealth of sporting delights around the world, from Euro 2016 to the Invictus Games. Here at World First, we help people transfer money around the world. Some of the people we help in 2016 might be out in the US for the Ryder Cup golf, and enjoy it so much […]
World First’s list of 101 things to do around the world in 2016
Want to do something different in 2016? We’ve scoured the world for the biggest, messiest, noisiest, most iconic and, frankly, the weirdest events around the world to compile the ultimate list of 101 things to do around the world in 2016. From sport to music, festivals to the weird and wonderful, we’ve got you covered. […]
Yen & Onsen – Skiing Japan
Excited to announce that the BestExchangeRates team and friends (pictured below) will be converging from Australia and the UK to Japan for a field study trip to research all matters Yen AUD/JPY GBP/JPYand oh a few powder runs and Onsen along the way 🙂 Along the way we will compare using Cash, Bank Credit Cards […]