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Property debt crisis in China, central bank bond policy and the energy crisis are combining for a volatile October - it is ever thus!
Fears Chinese mega developer Evergrande’s collapse will spark a contagion event and the ongoing European gas crisis has hit confidence.
Volatility returned to the currency markets last week with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar falling the hardest against the Greenback (both down 1W -3.0%).
Speculation abounds on whether the RBNZ will be the first to hike rates, this helped the NZD to rise to 1 year highs versus the Aussie dollar.
Last week’s big event was the strong US Non-Farms Payrolls report for July.
The British Pound GBP was a mover and shaker last week, hitting HIGHS against both the USD (30-DAY), EUR (90-DAY) and other major FX.
The way out from the UK’s experiment of lifting most lockdown measures is far from certain.
Currency markets move when both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada shift on their bond buying plans and interest rate outlooks.
The growth outlook for the Australian economic became pessimistic when more lockdowns were announced due to rising COVID-19 cases in Sydney.
US Non-Farm Payrolls report was a mixed result - the Unemployment Rate moved higher but Wages slipped.
Forecasts for the Thai baht change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Thai economy.
Fed Officials mixed opinions following last week’s hawkish bent reduces markets perception of sooner rate rises.
Last week the US Federal Reserve moved its growth forecasts higher and brought forward the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023.
Review of Currency Market trends and news from last week.
In 2021 currency forecasts are primarily influenced by the perceived relative coronavirus impact on economies and the success of government's response to the pandemic and impact on tourism.
On Thursday Turkey’s central bank finally caved into financial markets and jacked up interest rates by a hefty 4.75 per cent raising the benchmark rate to 15 per cent promising to remain tough on inflation.
With AUD-THB at a 10-year low, Australians travelling this year to Thailand's wildly popular resorts are facing holiday costs 50 percent higher than those paid in 2012. With exchange rates as they are, those in Oz are choosing better-value destinations.
The euro is under siege following disappointing data and news this week that Germany barely escaped a recession in 2018. The ECB will now wait longer before raising interest rates, analysts say; however, EUR/USD will still end the year higher. In South Africa, a prediction by the country’s central bank that interest rates will be raised only once before 2021 put an end to the rand’s great start to the year.
Despite a crushing defeat for Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday night and a motion of no confidence tabled against the British government—which the government survived on Wednesday—the pound is close to multi-week highs. In emerging markets, the Thai baht remains an outperformer.
The US dollar slipped last week and is likely to do so again heading into Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday. Like the dollar, the Thai baht might weaken once traders have fully digested Monday’s hugely disappointing economic data.
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
The US dollar continues to fall from long-term highs. Tuesday marked the fourth consecutive trading day of declines for the Dollar Index, which traded at a fourteen-month high of 97.0 last week. Approaching the end of Tuesday’s European session, the index had slumped into the 95.40s. The dollar was affected for the worse on Monday […]
The Thai baht may trade at 30 to the dollar early next year, said one of Thailand’s largest banks on Wednesday. Tak Bunnag, head of global markets at the Bank of Ayudhya, predicts that the baht will appreciate to 31.25 per dollar by the end of this year, from levels a shade below 32 at […]
Fuelled by an improvement in risk appetite and a pick-up in the number of foreign visitors to Thailand, the baht climbed on Wednesday to a four-year high of 31.1 per dollar. In doing so, the baht solidified its position as Asia’s best performing currency of the year. Volatility in the baht had dried up in recent […]
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suffered its worst one-day decline in ten months on Friday in spite of an unexpected acceleration in the rate of core inflation and what appeared to be an upward revision to U.S. interest rate expectations. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, […]
The U.S. dollar was upstaged by its Canadian counterpart on Friday following the release of some spectacular Canadian employment data. Statistics Canada said on Friday that the nation’s unemployment rate fell in December to just 5.7% – the lowest rate in forty years – and that Canadian businesses added 78,600 new jobs. Ahead of the […]
A better-than-expected US payrolls number on Friday affirmed investor expectations for a hike in US interest rates next week and supported the US dollar, which rose against a basket of currencies for a fourth consecutive day. Futures markets are now pricing in a 90.2% probability of the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
Currencies in Asia have begun the week slowly and also with contrasting performances against the FX majors. Against the dollar, while all of Asia’s ten most active currencies have fallen marginally on Monday morning, many hold slight gains or remain unchanged against the euro. Little movement has been seen against the yen. A mixed bag […]
Scotiabank analyst Qi Gao pointed on Wednesday to “solid fundamentals” and Thailand’s large current account surplus as reasons for the Thai baht to continue its reign as Asia’s best performing currency. Thailand’s current account surplus is now an impressive 11.5% of GDP and the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2013, at 3.7%. […]
A better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI failed to lift the yuan or Australian dollar on Thursday morning against a US dollar determined to end the month in the green. The Chinese PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 51.7 for August, slightly ahead of the market forecast of 51.3 and July’s reading of […]
Asia’s best performing currency, the Thai baht, isn’t done yet, said both Scotiabank and Standard Chartered in recent days. USD/THB, which has fallen (the baht has risen) 7% this year, is set for a further 7% fall to levels around ฿31 in 2018 according to Standard Chartered, from Monday’s exchange rate of ฿33.25. Analysts at […]
Most Asian currencies ended Wednesday higher against the dollar, albeit on a rather unspectacular day of trading. With a few exceptions, markets traded quietly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (24-26 August) at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi might give important updates on monetary policy. The star of the day […]
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
In an acknowledgement of the Thai baht’s rapid rise against the US dollar this year, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, Mathee Supapongse, said this week that Thai companies should consider hedging against future baht appreciation. Against the dollar, the baht has risen 7% so far in 2017, making the currency the second best […]
Thailand’s baht remains one of Asia’s best performing currencies this year. Against the US dollar, the baht has gained more than 5% in 2017 and is now buying $0.029, putting it back at 2015 levels. Against the Japanese yen, although the baht has gained only half as much in percentage terms as it has against […]
A rally in the US dollar prompted by moderately hawkish Fed speakers pushed emerging market Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lower on Tuesday. Asian currencies from developed economies but which nonetheless remain second tier and under the “emerging” umbrella, such as the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, […]
The Thai baht had its best day yesterday since March and has forced itself to 22-month and 15-month highs against the US dollar and Australian dollar respectively. USD/THB fell by 0.55% yesterday to 34.15, finally breaking the 34.25 level that had held the pair up since April 3rd. And the baht has strengthened again this […]
In Conan Doyle’s Hound of the Baskervilles, the legendary detective Sherlock Holmes solves a crime using his knowledge of what didn’t happen. Specifically, when Holmes learns that the victim’s dog had not barked during the night of the theft of a prized racehorse, Holmes knows that the offender is likely known to the dog – an insight […]
The price of WTI crude oil rose by almost a dollar yesterday to $48.79 – it’s sixth daily gain in the past seven – and prices in the futures market for 62% iron ore held above $60 per metric ton, both of which gave a boost to commodities currencies. Oil rallied after energy ministers from […]
Yesterday on BestExchangeRates.com, we suggested that now might be the time to change your Australian dollars into Canadian dollars, having seen the Aussie’s buying power reach 6-month highs on Tuesday. Those words now seem prophetic, given what we saw yesterday in Australian dollar exchange rates. The Australian dollar tumbled across the board yesterday, including against […]
On Friday, Scotiabank – otherwise known as the Bank of Nova Scotia – outlined four factors that would drive Asian currencies higher in 2017. Investors would “pour funds” into Asian markets on the following grounds: 1) If the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank continue with their stimulus programs, providing “accommodative” levels […]
The Malaysian ringgit has been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies for some time. Between May-2013 and September-2015 the exchange rate for MYR/USD declined from highs at 0.338 to 0.223 – a 34% fall in the currency’s value. Markets gave the ringgit some respite between October-15 and April-16, a period in which the ringgit clawed […]
The team at BMI Research – part of the Fitch group of companies – are maintaining their “slightly bullish” short-term view on the Taiwan dollar, mainly on technical grounds. Over a longer-term, analysts at the firm are also positive on the Taiwanese currency, believing in a “gradual appreciation”, based upon a solid fiscal outlook in […]
The Thai baht closed higher against the US dollar again on Thursday, ending the day just several pips short of recording its highest close in 21-months. Against the euro, the baht posted its highest close in 23-months. USD/THB and EUR/THB ended the New York session at 34.37 and 36.40 respectively. The baht continues […]