Currency Markets Volatile on Energy, China Debt and Inflation
Property debt crisis in China, central bank bond policy and the energy crisis are combining for a volatile October - it is ever thus!
Next Crises: China Property plus European Energy shake Currency Markets
Fears Chinese mega developer Evergrande’s collapse will spark a contagion event and the ongoing European gas crisis has hit confidence.
Oil drop hits loonie and peso – FX Volatility returns
Volatility returned to the currency markets last week with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar falling the hardest against the Greenback (both down 1W -3.0%).
RBNZ seen to be the first to hike rates – Boosts Kiwi dollar
Speculation abounds on whether the RBNZ will be the first to hike rates, this helped the NZD to rise to 1 year highs versus the Aussie dollar.
USD boosted by unexpectedly strong job creation in July
Last week’s big event was the strong US Non-Farms Payrolls report for July.
Pound bounces back – Aussie at Lows on Pandemic lockdowns
The British Pound GBP was a mover and shaker last week, hitting HIGHS against both the USD (30-DAY), EUR (90-DAY) and other major FX.
Pound weak on Uncertain Way Out from Lockdown – CAD and USD strong
The way out from the UK’s experiment of lifting most lockdown measures is far from certain.
NZ and Canada central banks shift outlooks
Currency markets move when both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada shift on their bond buying plans and interest rate outlooks.
Aussie volatile on Delta outbreak – Greenback weaker
The growth outlook for the Australian economic became pessimistic when more lockdowns were announced due to rising COVID-19 cases in Sydney.
Jobs Report – US dollar Buy Rumour Sell Fact
US Non-Farm Payrolls report was a mixed result - the Unemployment Rate moved higher but Wages slipped.
Thai Baht Forecasts 2021
Forecasts for the Thai baht change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Thai economy.
Fed inflation divisions pulls back US dollar
Fed Officials mixed opinions following last week’s hawkish bent reduces markets perception of sooner rate rises.
US Fed growth forecasts upsets currency markets
Last week the US Federal Reserve moved its growth forecasts higher and brought forward the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023.
European Central Bank casts no fresh clues
Review of Currency Market trends and news from last week.
AUD to THB Forecasts 2021
In 2021 currency forecasts are primarily influenced by the perceived relative coronavirus impact on economies and the success of government's response to the pandemic and impact on tourism.
Turkey finally raises rates – Lira jumps 11 percent
On Thursday Turkey’s central bank finally caved into financial markets and jacked up interest rates by a hefty 4.75 per cent raising the benchmark rate to 15 per cent promising to remain tough on inflation.
Australians Swerve Thai Holidays with Exchange Rates in the Gutter
With AUD-THB at a 10-year low, Australians travelling this year to Thailand's wildly popular resorts are facing holiday costs 50 percent higher than those paid in 2012. With exchange rates as they are, those in Oz are choosing better-value destinations.
Euro Struggles on Increased Recession Risk; Rand Outlook Worsens After Central Bank Changes Tune on Interest Rates
The euro is under siege following disappointing data and news this week that Germany barely escaped a recession in 2018. The ECB will now wait longer before raising interest rates, analysts say; however, EUR/USD will still end the year higher. In South Africa, a prediction by the country’s central bank that interest rates will be raised only once before 2021 put an end to the rand’s great start to the year.
Pound Fights Back on Hopes for Soft Brexit; Thai Baht at Long-Term Highs
Despite a crushing defeat for Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday night and a motion of no confidence tabled against the British government—which the government survived on Wednesday—the pound is close to multi-week highs. In emerging markets, the Thai baht remains an outperformer.
US Dollar to Fall This Week; Thai Baht Under Threat Following Huge GDP Miss
The US dollar slipped last week and is likely to do so again heading into Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday. Like the dollar, the Thai baht might weaken once traders have fully digested Monday’s hugely disappointing economic data.
Australian Dollar Has Best Week in 9 Months; Sterling Has a Shocker
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
Thai Baht at 5-Month High After Dollar Stumbles on Trump Remarks
The US dollar continues to fall from long-term highs. Tuesday marked the fourth consecutive trading day of declines for the Dollar Index, which traded at a fourteen-month high of 97.0 last week. Approaching the end of Tuesday’s European session, the index had slumped into the 95.40s. The dollar was affected for the worse on Monday […]
Baht to Trade at 30 to the Dollar, Predicts Bank of Ayudhya
The Thai baht may trade at 30 to the dollar early next year, said one of Thailand’s largest banks on Wednesday. Tak Bunnag, head of global markets at the Bank of Ayudhya, predicts that the baht will appreciate to 31.25 per dollar by the end of this year, from levels a shade below 32 at […]
Thai Baht Spurred On by Tourism; Rallies to 4-Year High Versus Dollar
Fuelled by an improvement in risk appetite and a pick-up in the number of foreign visitors to Thailand, the baht climbed on Wednesday to a four-year high of 31.1 per dollar. In doing so, the baht solidified its position as Asia’s best performing currency of the year. Volatility in the baht had dried up in recent […]
Dollar Doldrums: USD Suffers Worst Day in 10-Months Despite Pick-Up in Core Inflation
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suffered its worst one-day decline in ten months on Friday in spite of an unexpected acceleration in the rate of core inflation and what appeared to be an upward revision to U.S. interest rate expectations. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, […]
CAD Steals Headlines from Dollar on Dramatic Employment Boost; Asia-Pac Currencies Make Sweeping Gains
The U.S. dollar was upstaged by its Canadian counterpart on Friday following the release of some spectacular Canadian employment data. Statistics Canada said on Friday that the nation’s unemployment rate fell in December to just 5.7% – the lowest rate in forty years – and that Canadian businesses added 78,600 new jobs. Ahead of the […]
Dollar Higher Following Positive Jobs Report, Baht at 31-Month High and Bitcoin Futures Go Live
A better-than-expected US payrolls number on Friday affirmed investor expectations for a hike in US interest rates next week and supported the US dollar, which rose against a basket of currencies for a fourth consecutive day. Futures markets are now pricing in a 90.2% probability of the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the […]
Asia-Pac Currencies Make Waves Against Euro After ECB Extends Asset Purchases
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
The Week Ahead for Asia FX
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
Asian Currencies Have Muted Start to Golden Week
Currencies in Asia have begun the week slowly and also with contrasting performances against the FX majors. Against the dollar, while all of Asia’s ten most active currencies have fallen marginally on Monday morning, many hold slight gains or remain unchanged against the euro. Little movement has been seen against the yen. A mixed bag […]
Scotiabank: Thai Baht to Continue to Outperform in Asia
Scotiabank analyst Qi Gao pointed on Wednesday to “solid fundamentals” and Thailand’s large current account surplus as reasons for the Thai baht to continue its reign as Asia’s best performing currency. Thailand’s current account surplus is now an impressive 11.5% of GDP and the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2013, at 3.7%. […]
Data Fails to Lift AsiaPac Currencies
A better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI failed to lift the yuan or Australian dollar on Thursday morning against a US dollar determined to end the month in the green. The Chinese PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 51.7 for August, slightly ahead of the market forecast of 51.3 and July’s reading of […]
Baht’s Climb Not Yet Done, Says New Forecast
Asia’s best performing currency, the Thai baht, isn’t done yet, said both Scotiabank and Standard Chartered in recent days. USD/THB, which has fallen (the baht has risen) 7% this year, is set for a further 7% fall to levels around ฿31 in 2018 according to Standard Chartered, from Monday’s exchange rate of ฿33.25. Analysts at […]
Korean Won Leads Asian Currencies Higher
Most Asian currencies ended Wednesday higher against the dollar, albeit on a rather unspectacular day of trading. With a few exceptions, markets traded quietly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (24-26 August) at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi might give important updates on monetary policy. The star of the day […]
Strength in Thai Baht Only Temporary, Says Finance Minister
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
Thai Central Bank Advises Hedging Baht Appreciation and New Forecast for Philippine Peso
In an acknowledgement of the Thai baht’s rapid rise against the US dollar this year, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, Mathee Supapongse, said this week that Thai companies should consider hedging against future baht appreciation. Against the dollar, the baht has risen 7% so far in 2017, making the currency the second best […]
A Strong Baht Concerns Thailand’s Exporters, Currency Reaches 17-Month High Versus Yen
Thailand’s baht remains one of Asia’s best performing currencies this year. Against the US dollar, the baht has gained more than 5% in 2017 and is now buying $0.029, putting it back at 2015 levels. Against the Japanese yen, although the baht has gained only half as much in percentage terms as it has against […]
EM Asia Currencies Fall Following Moderately Hawkish Fed Speak
A rally in the US dollar prompted by moderately hawkish Fed speakers pushed emerging market Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lower on Tuesday. Asian currencies from developed economies but which nonetheless remain second tier and under the “emerging” umbrella, such as the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, […]
Thai Baht at 22-Month Highs as Money Pours into Emerging Markets
The Thai baht had its best day yesterday since March and has forced itself to 22-month and 15-month highs against the US dollar and Australian dollar respectively. USD/THB fell by 0.55% yesterday to 34.15, finally breaking the 34.25 level that had held the pair up since April 3rd. And the baht has strengthened again this […]
Malaysian Ringgit’s Failure to Rally Despite Positive News Could be Important Signal for Currency’s Future Direction
In Conan Doyle’s Hound of the Baskervilles, the legendary detective Sherlock Holmes solves a crime using his knowledge of what didn’t happen. Specifically, when Holmes learns that the victim’s dog had not barked during the night of the theft of a prized racehorse, Holmes knows that the offender is likely known to the dog – an insight […]
Commodities Support AUD, NZD, INR and Thai Baht Boosted by Better Than Expected GDP
The price of WTI crude oil rose by almost a dollar yesterday to $48.79 – it’s sixth daily gain in the past seven – and prices in the futures market for 62% iron ore held above $60 per metric ton, both of which gave a boost to commodities currencies. Oil rallied after energy ministers from […]
Fed and Economic Data Add to a Terrible Day for Australian Dollar
Yesterday on BestExchangeRates.com, we suggested that now might be the time to change your Australian dollars into Canadian dollars, having seen the Aussie’s buying power reach 6-month highs on Tuesday. Those words now seem prophetic, given what we saw yesterday in Australian dollar exchange rates. The Australian dollar tumbled across the board yesterday, including against […]
Scotiabank: Four Conditions for Asian Currency Appreciation in 2017
On Friday, Scotiabank – otherwise known as the Bank of Nova Scotia – outlined four factors that would drive Asian currencies higher in 2017. Investors would “pour funds” into Asian markets on the following grounds: 1) If the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank continue with their stimulus programs, providing “accommodative” levels […]
Malaysian Ringgit Outlook: Has It Turned a Corner?
The Malaysian ringgit has been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies for some time. Between May-2013 and September-2015 the exchange rate for MYR/USD declined from highs at 0.338 to 0.223 – a 34% fall in the currency’s value. Markets gave the ringgit some respite between October-15 and April-16, a period in which the ringgit clawed […]
Gradual Appreciation of Taiwan Dollar Likely, Says Research Group, and Stormy Waters Possibly Ahead for Emerging Market Currencies
The team at BMI Research – part of the Fitch group of companies – are maintaining their “slightly bullish” short-term view on the Taiwan dollar, mainly on technical grounds. Over a longer-term, analysts at the firm are also positive on the Taiwanese currency, believing in a “gradual appreciation”, based upon a solid fiscal outlook in […]
Thai Baht Close to 21-Month Highs as Central Bank Governor Denies Currency Manipulation
The Thai baht closed higher against the US dollar again on Thursday, ending the day just several pips short of recording its highest close in 21-months. Against the euro, the baht posted its highest close in 23-months. USD/THB and EUR/THB ended the New York session at 34.37 and 36.40 respectively. The baht continues […]