Indian Rupee – Market News
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent on Tuesday, spurring big gains for the Australian dollar, which had slipped beforehand to long-term lows against several major currencies. Roughly half of economists had expected rates to be cut by 25 basis points.
Seasonal weakness, election uncertainty, strong technical support and oil market complications should be more than sufficient to spur an AUD/INR rally into mid-year.
A decrease in AUD/INR is expected in 2020, and that's bad news for Indian expat workers, who represent one of the largest groups remitting money from Australia.
Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technologies that support them are at the forefront of remittance-industry innovations, but these are under attack in India, where a complete crypto ban will be proposed in May.
Forecasts for the Indian rupee change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Indian economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of INR in the currency markets.
For the US dollar, analysts are predicting significant weakness in 2019. In contrast, the Canadian dollar will likely strengthen amid an energy market rebound, but under the same conditions the Indian rupee will slide to a record low. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are trading higher but fail to inspire confidence.
Friday’s announcement by the BLS that unemployment in the US has fallen to its lowest level in half a century further firmed expectations for US interest rates and was sufficient to drive the US dollar to fresh long-term highs against currencies throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
There was widespread relief among emerging market investors on Thursday after the Turkish central bank finally raised interest rates to protect the embattled lira. Elsewhere, the dollar lost value for a fourth consecutive day and ethereum stabilized after a ten-day fall.
A Reuters survey of investors this week has shown increased bearishness on the Indonesian rupiah, Singapore dollar and Indian rupee. Each of the Asian currencies has lost value this year amid concerns for global trade and following emerging market currency crises in Argentina and Turkey.
Thursday’s gain of 56 paise over the dollar market the Indian rupee’s best one-day performance since November 2016. The rupee thrived after oil prices plunged on Wednesday.
On Friday, the Indian rupee had one of its best days in recent years, with gains of 49 paise and 72 paise against the dollar (₹66.91) and euro (₹78.13) respectively. The rupee was supported after data showed India’s economy growing faster than any other in the world, including China. For USD/INR, now at a one-month […]
The big news for investors on Thursday was Washington’s confirmation that steel and aluminium products reaching the US from Europe, Canada and Mexico – all important allies – would be subject to trade tariffs. Foreign leaders raged against the decision and announced plans for immediate retaliation. On Tuesday, Washington had already announced tariffs on $50 […]
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The U.S. dollar was upstaged by its Canadian counterpart on Friday following the release of some spectacular Canadian employment data. Statistics Canada said on Friday that the nation’s unemployment rate fell in December to just 5.7% – the lowest rate in forty years – and that Canadian businesses added 78,600 new jobs. Ahead of the […]
Ahead of major announcements in the coming days, investors were in surprisingly good spirits on Wednesday, indicated by a stronger New Zealand dollar, won, rupee and a faltering yen. Weakness in Asia-Pac FX would have been forgiven ahead of Thursday’s announcements by the FOMC (Wednesday in the US and Europe), Bank of England and Donald […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
With the unsurprising exception of the Philippine peso – Asia’s worst performing currency of the year – Asia-Pac’s most actively traded currencies made gains against the US dollar on Tuesday. Although limited, gains were somewhat easy to come by as risk appetite returned after the President of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, held off on formally declaring […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region fell against the US dollar on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would raise interest rates again this year and would begin shrinking its balance sheet in October. The Fed funds rate was left unchanged at its current range of 1–1.25%. Although the majority of economists had […]
India’s experiment with “demonetization” has failed according to figures from the country’s central bank. In a shocking decision on November 8th of last year, India’s government demonetized all 500 and 1000 rupee notes (worth USD 7.78 and USD 15.56 respectively), rendering 86% of currency in circulation worthless. Indians were given just four hours’ notice by […]
As expected by roughly seventy percent of economists, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key interest rate to 6% from 6.25% at Wednesday’s meeting. Four of the six members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee voted for the change. Interest rates have not been this low in India since 2010. The Indian rupee, […]
Of fifteen economists surveyed by Mint, eleven expect India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting. Of a further fifty-six economists polled by Reuters, forty expect the same. With no unanimous prediction, this makes rupee volatility highly likely before and after the meeting. The announcement […]
Dutch bank ABN Amro have this week upgraded their forecast for the Indian rupee. The bank now believes that the year will end with the rupee buying 0.0155 US dollars (USD/INR 64.5), and while this is not a significant increase on the rupee’s current valuation at 0.0154 (USD/INR 65.0), it marks a significant upward revision […]
A rally in the US dollar prompted by moderately hawkish Fed speakers pushed emerging market Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lower on Tuesday. Asian currencies from developed economies but which nonetheless remain second tier and under the “emerging” umbrella, such as the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, […]
The price of WTI crude oil rose by almost a dollar yesterday to $48.79 – it’s sixth daily gain in the past seven – and prices in the futures market for 62% iron ore held above $60 per metric ton, both of which gave a boost to commodities currencies. Oil rallied after energy ministers from […]