Euro – Daily Market Updates keep our customers aware of the latest Euro exchange rates, charts and rate changes in the major EUR cross currency pairs. This allows you to take advantage of any market moves plus the low margins from our online currency and foreign payment partners to ensure you get the best possible exchange rates deals.
As we approach mid-year a shift has taken place in currency markets with the narrative less about interest rates hikes and more risk-off worries about a possible coming recession.
Divergent expectations for inflation and interest rates between the eurozone and the US from last year continue in 2022.
The inflating effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy prices hurts the euro and helps the Aussie pushing up the AUD/EUR rate.
The pound to euro exchange rate direction is being driven by the energy crisis and the lingering impact of the pandemic on full reopening of the economies in England and the Eurozone.
In 2022 forecasts and predictions for the CAD/EUR exchange rate are driven by the effect of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices.
During periods of rising inflation a stronger currency benefits a country's economics as this makes imports cheaper.
Any curbs to Russian access to its foreign reserves could present a bigger blow to the Russian economy than the impact of a ban on Swift.
Russia attacking Ukraine has sparked volatility and a flight to safe-haven currencies such as CHF.
Property debt crisis in China, central bank bond policy and the energy crisis are combining for a volatile October - it is ever thus!
Fears Chinese mega developer Evergrande’s collapse will spark a contagion event and the ongoing European gas crisis has hit confidence.
Volatility returned to the currency markets last week with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar falling the hardest against the Greenback (both down 1W -3.0%).
Speculation abounds on whether the RBNZ will be the first to hike rates, this helped the NZD to rise to 1 year highs versus the Aussie dollar.
Last week’s big event was the strong US Non-Farms Payrolls report for July.
The British Pound GBP was a mover and shaker last week, hitting HIGHS against both the USD (30-DAY), EUR (90-DAY) and other major FX.
The way out from the UK’s experiment of lifting most lockdown measures is far from certain.
Currency markets move when both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada shift on their bond buying plans and interest rate outlooks.
The growth outlook for the Australian economic became pessimistic when more lockdowns were announced due to rising COVID-19 cases in Sydney.
US Non-Farm Payrolls report was a mixed result - the Unemployment Rate moved higher but Wages slipped.
Fed Officials mixed opinions following last week’s hawkish bent reduces markets perception of sooner rate rises.
Last week the US Federal Reserve moved its growth forecasts higher and brought forward the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023.
Review of Currency Market trends and news from last week.
Friday was a volatile day in currency markets after a much weaker than expected US jobs report was released.
In May the US dollar has regained some of the ground it lost last month when it had its longest stretch without gains against a basket of peers in nine months.
The strong US stock markets and higher yields from treasury bonds may be the catalyst for strong swings for currencies versus the USD.
New Year brings a weak US dollar and chaos in Washington DC with Capitol Hill reduced to a riot zone and President Trump impeached for a second time.
On Thursday Turkey’s central bank finally caved into financial markets and jacked up interest rates by a hefty 4.75 per cent raising the benchmark rate to 15 per cent promising to remain tough on inflation.
The recent period has been volatile for currency markets tossed about by US election uncertainty, stimulus spending doubts and both good and bad news from the COVID-19 frontline.
The Euro is slumping as France and Germany resume national lockdowns to combat surging second-wave Covid cases.
Immediate forecasts for the euro are being driven entirely by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact on energy prices. This continually updated article reviews EUR bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
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Currency rates were extremely volatile last week as the coronavirus situation worsened day by day with various countries implementing ever-tougher measures to stop the spread of the disease.
This week the US Dollar was touching three-year highs when valued against a basket of major currencies. The greenback's traditional role as one of the safe-haven currencies is helped by a domestic economy that is largely immune to the threats of the coronavirus.
The strong start to the year for "risk-on" currencies is already a distant memory.
The threat of a proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq has pared back some of the recent gains of "risk-on" currencies.
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force "no deal” or a general election.
Lifted by oil, economic data and the Fed, the Canadian dollar has soared against the US dollar to a 16-week high and has reached even more impressive milestones against the pound, euro and Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar is at or near multi-month lows against a number of major currencies in spite of a rampant iron ore market — once a great influence on AUD.
Investors dumped the US dollar on Friday after US jobs data came in well short of estimates and cemented expectations for lower US interest rates. In the coming months, the greenback might maintain its value based on safe haven inflows and looser monetary policies in other parts of the world.
The operator of the world’s largest financial messaging system, SWIFT, has said it will trial real-time "gpi" cross-border payments using the European Central Bank's TIPS platform. SWIFT gpi has been developed as an answer to distributed ledger payment technologies, most notably Ripple.
The British pound fell on Wednesday for a record thirteenth consecutive day against the euro. The currency is taking a Brexit-induced beating days before May’s half-term school break — a popular time in the UK for family holidays.
Five banks have been fined a collective €1.07 billion by the European Commission for running a “cartel” that manipulated foreign exchange rates for financial gain.
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
Constructive Brexit talks between UK politicians have imparted a sense of renewed optimism that has lifted the British pound to a 2-week high against the dollar and to a 3-week high against the euro.
A turbocharged US dollar is likely to be “stronger for longer” after reaching long-term highs against a host of major currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.
The Swiss franc continued its shocking run of form on Tuesday, slipping against the euro to its weakest level in 6 months.
The euro hasn’t traded as low as US$1.08 since the early portion of 2017, but that’s where we’re heading within the next 3 months, analysts at ANZ believe.
Developments this week make a “benign Brexit outcome” the most probable and offer reason enough to be favouring British pound appreciation for the foreseeable future, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have said.
Given what should have been obvious advantages, the Australian dollar’s inability to gain against the US dollar last week is an ominous sign that suggests further Aussie depreciation in the near term.
The US dollar crumbled on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2019, thereby backtracking on the two rate hikes it predicted in December.
US jobs growth of only 20,000 in February, versus expected growth of 180,000, has allowed rest-of-the-world currencies to claw back ground against the US dollar which, until Friday, had been on a stellar run.
The British pound has hit a 21-month high against the euro following increased speculation of a delayed Brexit and after Britain’s opposition party leader said he would now back a second referendum on EU membership.
The British pound was in high demand on Tuesday ahead of an important meeting between British PM Theresa May and EU officials, at which investors are hoping for a Brexit breakthrough.
Those intending to pick up euros this week should consider heeding warnings offered by MUFG. The bank expects the euro to move towards cheaper levels in the coming days and it would therefore be unwise to pay rates offered on Monday.
The pound rejected sub-US$1.29 levels on Thursday even after the Bank of England slashed growth forecasts, indicating underlying strength. Analysts say that the pound will rally to buy US$1.40 should Theresa May secure the EU concessions needed to pass her Brexit withdrawal agreement.
With a number of Australian data releases, RBA statements and forecasts on the economic calendar, the Australian dollar is likely to be in the headlines this week, for good or bad.
A referendum in Switzerland on Sunday will ask whether Swiss law should take precedence over international laws, particularly those coming from the EU. A vote by the people to take back legislative control would undoubtedly weaken the Swiss franc.
Weakness in the Australian dollar since Friday is to be short-lived, experts at National Australia Bank have said. A rally in AUD/USD to 0.74 is on the cards, as are politically-driven moves in EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF towards 0.92 and 1.2.
The Australian dollar is benefitting from disarray in Europe and upbeat employment data. The day’s biggest news comes from Europe, though, where the British pound suffered one of its largest intraday declines in recent years following the resignation of the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator.
Political risks continue to weigh on the euro, which slipped on Monday to a 16-month low against the dollar. We’ll likely see an even weaker euro later in the week but long-term prospects for the currency look good, analysts say.
The mood was buoyant in foreign exchange markets on Thursday following news that the UK has achieved a deal with the EU on financial services that would give London’s banks continued access to European markets post-Brexit. Together with the pound, currencies that benefit from the switch to “risk on,” like the Australian dollar and New […]
Developments outside the US allowed for the dollar to appreciate against a basket of currencies to a sixteen-month high on Wednesday. The ICE-maintained US dollar Index, which provides a weighted-mean measure of the greenback’s value against the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and Swedish krona, traded above 97.0 for the second […]
The Canadian dollar received a significant boost on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada said it would “need to raise [interest rates] to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target.” As widely expected, the BoC also hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent. The Canadian dollar strengthened by nearly a […]
All eyes on Wednesday will be on the meeting between EU leaders and British Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels, at which some still hope a Brexit deal might be struck. Expect volatility in sterling and euro rates throughout the evening. Meanwhile, the Swedish krona continues to outperform in Europe on expectations for tighter Riksbank policy.
The Brexit-driven EUR/GBP exchange rate opened on Monday at a 3 ½-month low as investors continue to bet on the UK and EU striking a deal. Against the dollar, the euro will be worth as much as 13 percent more next year, according to a new forecast from ING.
The US dollar was the best of the majors on Thursday—it broke to a nine-month high versus the yen and forced a retreat in the Australian dollar back to the low $0.72s. In Hong Kong, commercial lending rates have been raised for the first time in twelve years, indicating the beginning of the end for cheap money in the region.
The Federal Reserve raised the upper level of US interest rates to 2.25 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected, while also dropping longstanding terminology from its statement relating to the “accommodative” level of monetary policy. The dollar was volatile as a result.
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
The British pound has been sold widely on Friday following Thursday’s comprehensive rejection by EU leaders of the UK’s proposed Brexit deal—the “Chequers” plan. The Chequers plan, which outlines terms for the UK’s departure from the EU and which includes a “combined customs territory” on the Irish border, “would not work,” said European Council President […]
There was widespread relief among emerging market investors on Thursday after the Turkish central bank finally raised interest rates to protect the embattled lira. Elsewhere, the dollar lost value for a fourth consecutive day and ethereum stabilized after a ten-day fall.
The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency on Monday. The krone benefitted from better-than-expected inflation data and an uptick in European sentiment that followed this weekend’s Swedish election and Michel Barnier's prediction that a Brexit deal will be concluded within 6-8 weeks.
The euro fell sharply against the British pound on Friday after the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he was determined to strike a deal with the UK. A near-perfect Head and Shoulders pattern now indicates a move in EUR/GBP into the high 0.87s.
A better-than-expected print for Australian GDP growth was unable to prevent further Australian dollar weakness on Wednesday. After a short-lived jump on the 0.9 percent second-quarter reading (0.7 percent growth expected), the Aussie fell early in the European session to a two-year low of 71.45 US cents. In the hours following GDP, it also lost […]
The rand fell sharply on Tuesday following news that South Africa has entered a recession. The dollar, meanwhile, continues to react favourably whenever the spotlight is turned towards US tariffs and a potential trade conflict with China.
The currency situation in Argentina is becoming desperate. In a single three-hour period on Thursday, the Argentine peso shed 19 percent of its value as it slid to 41.47 to the dollar. The peso had already lost 45 percent since January. With the peso’s spiral downwards, default risk in Argentina moves ever higher, resulting in […]
It was a cracking week for the euro. Boosted by soft rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and confidence-boosting July-meeting minutes from the ECB, the euro gained against all other G10 currencies.
The US dollar continues to fall from long-term highs. Tuesday marked the fourth consecutive trading day of declines for the Dollar Index, which traded at a fourteen-month high of 97.0 last week. Approaching the end of Tuesday’s European session, the index had slumped into the 95.40s. The dollar was affected for the worse on Monday […]
The US dollar and Japanese yen soared on Friday as traders fled risk-sensitive currencies. Turmoil in emerging market FX is being led by the Turkish lira, which fell 15 percent in twelve hours after President Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports.
Entering the second trading week of August, the Canadian dollar remains at or near multi-month highs against many of the world's major currencies. The "loonie" has been well supported since the end of June following a hawkish repricing of Canadian interest rate expectations.
The Australian dollar was the best performing major during Friday’s European session. The “Aussie” rallied by as much as 0.8 percent to rates above 74 US cents after robust Australian economic data.
The US dollar made inroads against most of the world’s currencies on Thursday as trade fears forced investors into safer assets.
Trade tensions were eased on Wednesday after the US announced it had agreed to work towards zero tariffs on “non-auto industrial goods” with the European Union. Unlike equity markets, which rallied strongly on the news, FX markets were little changed on Thursday morning.
Ahead of important trade talks in Europe and Washington, the Mexican peso traded on Wednesday at its strongest level in nearly three months, at 18.7 to the dollar. The peso also rallied to its best level this year versus the euro, at 21.9.
The Japanese yen has been the star performer of recent days and by Monday afternoon in London it was once again trading higher against most of the world’s currencies. When last seen, USD/JPY stood at 111.
The Swiss franc remains overvalued at the current rate of 1.16 francs per euro, said Swiss finance minister Ueli Maurer on Wednesday, but the currency is finally at levels that Switzerland “can live with.”
Traders offloaded Chinese yuan and Australian dollars on Wednesday after the US government said it would introduce 10 percent tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The Canadian dollar will weaken to 1.35 to the US dollar should the Bank of Canada surprise investors on Wednesday by keeping interest rates on hold, says the latest research report from BNP Paribas.
The Swedish krona is on course for a fourth consecutive day of gains as investors continue to respond with positivity to this week’s revised inflation forecasts.
In late June 2018, Transferwise introduced a new fee structure for Eurozone foreign transfers (from EUR) ... and as always with Transferwise its complicated so we will break it down for you!
The euro plunged on Thursday and the US dollar had one of its best days in recent memory after two of the world’s most important central banks announced decisions on monetary policy. EUR/USD, now at 1.156, shed 2 percent, marking its biggest one-day decline since the summer of 2016. Offering contrasting messages were the US […]
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The euro’s 0.9 percent gain against the dollar last week to 1.1766 marked the end of a seven-week losing spell and offered hope to euro bulls; however, confidence in the single currency would be misplaced, say researchers at Danske Bank, who forecast “limited [euro] upside potential” between now and year-end. The euro remains down more […]
June has, for the past decade, been a month in which the US dollar comes unstuck. Per the Dollar Index (DXY), the dollar has lost value in eight of the past ten Junes, and in one of the two profitable years, holders of dollars would have had to suffer a 3 percent intra-month drawdown to […]
The big news for investors on Thursday was Washington’s confirmation that steel and aluminium products reaching the US from Europe, Canada and Mexico – all important allies – would be subject to trade tariffs. Foreign leaders raged against the decision and announced plans for immediate retaliation. On Tuesday, Washington had already announced tariffs on $50 […]
Of the world’s major currencies, the euro has been among the hardest hit in recent weeks. A sixth consecutive week of losses has seen EUR/USD fall into the mid-1.16s, to a six-month low; EUR/JPY to the mid-127s, to an eleven-month low; and the past fortnight’s fall in EUR/CHF from levels near 1.20 to 1.155 represents […]
Spare a thought for the Argentine peso. The ill-fated currency of South America’s second largest economy lost 6 percent of its value last week, taking its twelve-month loss to 30 percent. Now at 21.82 per US dollar, the peso is worth less than at any point since Argentina’s fixed exchange rate system was abandoned in […]
It was a disappointing end to the week for the US dollar but enough was achieved between Monday and Thursday for it to record its best week since bubbling over in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election in November 2016. Investors piled into dollars as yields rose amid a massive increase in the supply of […]
The Australian dollar, together with other risk currencies, will likely start next week under pressure following the launch on Saturday morning of air strikes on Syrian weapons research and storage targets by the US, UK and France. The strikes come after a chemical weapons attack in Douma one week ago, which killed an estimated 75 […]
Scandinavia’s most important exchange rate, EUR/SEK, continues to make new ground for this decade. The rate climbed last week to its highest since 2009, at 10.35, reflecting a grim outlook for the Swedish krona – one in which it wrestles with a dovish central bank and the threat of an international trade war. The krona, […]
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The Canadian dollar is on course for its worst weekly performance in more than a year as traders reassess their exposure to the currency in response to new US trade tariffs, slower economic growth and a softer oil price. At the end of the Asian business week and with much of Friday’s European session already […]
Among the world’s ten most actively traded currencies, it was the Chinese yuan that was leading the pack approaching the end of the Asian business week. Last week: majors all down Aussie dollar (AUD) was down last week, retreating from US0.80 cents, on Australia’s disappointing rise in private sector wages, their massive contraction […]
Last week’s much-improved US inflation data had the desired effect on US rate expectations which have adjusted to indicate a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. Ordinarily, such a revision to expectations would fuel a transfer of hot money into US dollars, yet dollar traders continue to chart their own […]
This week’s much-improved US inflation data has had the desired effect on US rate expectations, with the yield on two-year Treasuries climbing again on Friday, as it did on Thursday, to levels above 2.2%. Meanwhile, prices in derivatives markets have adjusted to indicate a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. […]
During a week which saw global equity markets suffer their largest losses in two years and broader market volatility pick up, foreign exchange markets were surprisingly calm. A flight to safety benefitted the US dollar, which finished higher against a basket of currencies for the second consecutive week; and the Japanese yen, which at one […]
Bitcoin’s tumble continued on Friday, with the cryptocurrency falling at one stage by fifteen percent to just $7,960 – sixty percent lower than December’s high just shy of $20,000 ($19,891). An afternoon rebound saw bitcoin end the day close to $8,600 but that did little to improve sentiment in the face of scrutiny from regulators […]
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suffered its worst one-day decline in ten months on Friday in spite of an unexpected acceleration in the rate of core inflation and what appeared to be an upward revision to U.S. interest rate expectations. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, […]
The South African rand continued its recovery on Tuesday, strengthening to levels close to 14.0 per dollar, following last week’s budget-induced tumble. USD/ZAR had climbed as high as 14.35 on Friday – the rand’s weakest level against the dollar in eleven months – as investors dumped South African assets in response to last week’s mid-term […]
The Russian ruble has been one of the most volatile emerging market currencies in recent years, and it ended this trading week in much the same way. On Friday, USD/RUB’s high-low range ran close to 1.1 rubles, marking the Russian currency’s most volatile session since July. Yesterday’s excitement in USD/RUB was largely the result of […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
The South Korean won climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday (a USD/KRW low) of 1123.3 after third-quarter GDP data showed South Korea’s economy growing at its fastest pace in seven years. Third-quarter growth of 1.4% was well above the median estimate of 1.0% and an improvement on second-quarter expansion of 0.6%. […]
Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was the decisive winner in this weekend’s Japanese election, paving the way for a continuation of “Abenomics” and extremely loose monetary policy in the world’s third largest economy. Consequently, the Japanese yen weakened on Monday to levels above 114 per dollar for the first time since July. According to the […]
Holders of New Zealand dollars are still suffering on Friday as the currency continues to fall following last night’s news that New Zealand will be led by a Labour government, with Jacinda Ardern at the helm. In the twenty-four-hour period leading up to 4pm in Wellington, the New Zealand dollar weakened nearly 2.25% against the […]
Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison expressed no discomfort with the current valuation of the Australian dollar this weekend. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Morrison said that Australian exporters had adapted to a currency that was now 9.3% higher against the US dollar ($0.7873) and nearly 4% higher against the Chinese yuan (¥ 5.1954) than it […]
In spite of robust economic data, the Singapore dollar weakened on Friday to 1.354 per US dollar and to 1.604 per euro, from 1.3515 and 1.5992 respectively. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Friday that preliminary GDP for the third quarter grew by an impressive 6.3%; nearly twice the market forecast of 3.2%. […]
The euro is set to rally against the Swiss franc to levels between 1.18 and 1.20, and perhaps beyond, according to a consensus opinion of bank research teams. The euro ended Wednesday’s New York session buying 1.1542 francs and has so far averaged 1.11 francs in 2017. The driving force for euro appreciation against the […]
Wow. What a confusing jobs report. The most important economic data release of the month caused flip-flopping in the US dollar on Friday as a decline in US jobs was offset by solid readings for earnings growth and unemployment. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that non-farm payrolls fell by 33,000 in […]
At 2:30pm local time (GMT+11) on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest decision on interest rates. No change is expected to the RBA’s cash rate which has been held at a record low of 1.5% since August 2016, and therefore, once again, the spotlight will be shone on the RBA’s accompanying […]
Currencies in Asia have begun the week slowly and also with contrasting performances against the FX majors. Against the dollar, while all of Asia’s ten most active currencies have fallen marginally on Monday morning, many hold slight gains or remain unchanged against the euro. Little movement has been seen against the yen. A mixed bag […]
Scotiabank analyst Qi Gao pointed on Wednesday to “solid fundamentals” and Thailand’s large current account surplus as reasons for the Thai baht to continue its reign as Asia’s best performing currency. Thailand’s current account surplus is now an impressive 11.5% of GDP and the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2013, at 3.7%. […]
“We were wrong,” said HSBC’s head of strategy David Bloom as he cancelled the bank’s forecast for the euro to reach parity with sterling this year. For much of 2017, HSBC analysts have been among the gloomiest on sterling with their predictions for continued declines in the currency against both the euro and dollar. Bloom had […]
General elections in New Zealand and Germany have produced uncertain or surprising outcomes and political parties in both countries must now spend the coming days and weeks striking cross-party deals in the hope of forming coalition governments. In New Zealand, the incumbent National Party, led by Bill English, won 58 seats, putting it just shy […]
US ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating from Aa1 to Aa2 over concerns for the future of the UK’s public finances. The ratings outlook is now “stable”, from “negative”. Moody’s stripped the UK of its AAA rating back in 2013. “The outlook for the UK’s public finances has weakened significantly since the […]
New forecasts from Dutch bank ABN Amro see continued weakness in the US dollar heading into and throughout 2018. “We have a strong conviction that the US dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend,” said ABN’s Georgette Boele. The dollar will be hardest hit against “growth sensitive and commodity currencies,” according to the bank, which include […]
The British pound rose on Friday to its highest level against the dollar since the UK’s historic ‘Brexit’ vote in June of last year. By lunchtime in London, the pound was buying $1.3616, capping a brilliant fortnight in which it has risen from rates close to $1.29. On minor profit taking, the currency settled back […]
Investors were rattled on Friday morning following the news that North Korea had launched another missile over northern Japan. After traversing the island of Hokkaido, the missile is said to have travelled a further 1200 miles before landing in the Pacific Ocean. The North Korean regime preceded its test with statements that it would “sink” […]
The Singapore dollar has begun the week cautiously. Against the US dollar, having risen on Friday to a one-year high of 0.7493, the currency of Asia’s ‘Lion City’ conceded some ground on Monday and Tuesday, with SGD/USD falling back below 0.745. A retreat in the pair was likely given last week’s approach to major technical […]
The New Zealand dollar sank on Monday morning against the other FX majors amid uncertainty over New Zealand’s future government and on the back of a continuation in weak sales data. Advanced voting in New Zealand’s general election begins on Monday, ahead of election day on September 23rd, and while polls indicate no clear favourite, […]
The Japanese yen gapped higher on Monday morning following the test of a hydrogen bomb this weekend by North Korea. The bomb was described on North Korean state media as being one of “unprecedentedly big power.” With current sanctions against Pyongyang seemingly insufficient, in response to the latest provocation, US President Donald Trump said that Washington […]
A better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI failed to lift the yuan or Australian dollar on Thursday morning against a US dollar determined to end the month in the green. The Chinese PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 51.7 for August, slightly ahead of the market forecast of 51.3 and July’s reading of […]
Investors fled to the safety of gold, government bonds and the Japanese yen on Tuesday as geopolitics took centre stage. After North Korea fired a missile over Japan, money flooded into gold, which rallied to a nine-month high of $1,325, and into yen, which strengthened to the low 108s against the dollar. Prices for Treasuries, […]
The euro rallied strongly on Friday, climbing by more than a percent against the dollar to 1.1941 – the euro’s highest level since January 2015. Against the British pound, the single currency reached levels unseen since October 2009, at 0.9269. Investors and traders rushed into euros after ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech at the Jackson […]
The New Zealand government piled misery onto the New Zealand dollar on Wednesday with its announcement that it had revised downward its forecasts for economic growth this year and next. Treasury officials said that growth for the year to June 2017 would likely come in at 2.6%, from earlier expectations of 3.2%, and have forecast […]
The yen fell by nearly a percent yesterday against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall in six weeks – as investors regained their appetite for risk amid an easing of the tense situation surrounding North Korea. The yen, which has long been considered the FX world’s premier safe haven, typically falls in value […]
HSBC and Morgan Stanley are in agreement: The euro will rally to reach parity (1.0) with the British pound within the next 4-8 months. This consensus has been formed after Morgan Stanley this week released their latest forecasts which show EUR/GBP at 1.02 by the end of March next year. HSBC had already publicly forecast […]
“Let’s calm down,” said the governor of the Philippines’ central bank on Sunday as he sought to settle investor nerves following a fall in the Philippine peso to an eleven-year low against the dollar. The peso fell on Friday to 51.14 against USD – a valuation not seen since August 2006 – and has fallen again on […]
The implied probability of a further hike in US interest rates this year declined on Friday to 35%, down from probabilities above 40% one day earlier. This fairly drastic adjustment in market expectations for US rates occurred following inflation data which, remarkably, came in below market expectations for the fifth consecutive month. The US dollar […]
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
Tuesday’s Asian session was stirred by a surprise surge in the Chinese yuan. Starting around 9:30am in Beijing, the yuan began rallying strongly against the dollar, with offshore rates declining (the yuan strengthening) to 6.7024 by 1pm, from rates earlier in the session around 6.73. Onshore yuan easily broke the 6.7 level and as of writing […]
The US dollar ended the week on a high, posting its best day in more than six months following Friday’s solid US employment data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged from levels in the high 92s to the high 93s after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls had risen by 209,000 […]
As expected by roughly seventy percent of economists, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key interest rate to 6% from 6.25% at Wednesday’s meeting. Four of the six members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee voted for the change. Interest rates have not been this low in India since 2010. The Indian rupee, […]
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) surprised markets in July when it cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 6.75% – the country’s first rate cut since 2012. Prior to the decision, of the fifty economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg, only three had predicted a move to lower the cost of borrowing. This rate […]
The recent plunge in the Swiss franc continued on Friday with the currency falling to new multi-month lows against several of the other majors. Against the euro, Switzerland’s currency fell to an eighteen-month low of €0.88 (EUR/CHF 1.1363). The franc has fallen in near-vertical fashion this week and the pace of its fall has only […]
Within the past several hours, a scare relating to the New Zealand dairy industry has caused sudden moves in the New Zealand dollar. Between 1:45pm and 2:15pm (Auckland, GMT+12), NZD/USD, NZD/EUR and NZD/JPY each fell by 0.4% – equivalent to falls of roughly 30 pips, 25 pips and 35 pips respectively. The moves happened quickly […]
The British pound is set to fall by as much as 15% by the end of 2017 according to Guy Petcho of Voya Investment Management. Petcho, who formerly was a part of George Soros’ investing team, said in an interview with Reuters on Friday that a turn for the worse in UK economic growth will […]
Officials at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said today that they were pushing back the time frame for achieving their 2% inflation target to the end of 2019, marking yet another defeat in the bank’s long-term battle against deflation. When the target was introduced by BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013, it was forecast that […]
The Korean won gained nearly 1% against the US dollar yesterday and by doing so recorded its best day since April. USD/KRW ended the New York session at 1137.4. The move took the won’s 2017 gain against the dollar to 6%. Against the euro, the won gained 1.4% – its best day since November – […]
The New Zealand dollar continued yesterday to retrace its broad May-June uptrend, falling to a one-month low against the British pound and euro, and to a three-month low against the Canadian dollar. NZD/GBP, NZD/EUR and NZD/CAD fell to 0.5583, 0.6293 and 0.9305 respectively. Although the kiwi has fallen across the board in recent weeks, it […]
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a battle to maintain extreme levels of monetary policy stimulus – a battle which, to win, must necessarily weaken the Japanese yen. On Friday, the yen locked in its fourth consecutive weekly loss against the US dollar, its seventh such loss against the New Zealand dollar, and it […]
Ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls data, the Hong Kong dollar’s fall continues unabated. This week the currency is holding above 7.81 against the US dollar and reached an eighteen-month low (a USD/HKD high) on Monday of 7.8140. Hong Kong dollar weakness continues to be driven by the ever-widening gap between local and US interbank […]
By rallying 6.5% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, the Taiwan dollar so far claims the crown of 2017’s best performing Asian currency. The Taiwan dollar’s rally is likely to have ended however, according to the results of a Bloomberg survey of foreign exchange traders who were asked their views […]
With all votes counted, it has been confirmed that Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has been crushed in Sunday’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election. The TMA is the prefectural parliament of Tokyo and its members are elected every four years. The LDP, who are led by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, won […]
This week the Philippine peso fell against the dollar to levels not seen since September 2006. Recent peso weakness, driven by a deterioration in the state of the Philippines’ current account, finally pushed USD/PHP above the 50.50 resistance level which had kept the exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP reached highs of 50.72 on Thursday but did […]
The Malaysian ringgit was Asia’s worst performing currency in 2016, having suffered from a slump in the oil price, a general deterioration in Malaysia’s economic outlook and a far-reaching political and economic scandal involving the country’s Prime Minister, Najib Razak, and billions of lost dollars from Malaysia’s state development fund. With that said, in 2017, […]
“Hedge funds are selling yen this week, and positive comments from Yellen could give them an excuse to sell even more,” said Kaneo Ogino of FX research group Global-Info Co yesterday. Ogino’s comments came at the end of yesterday’s New York session which ended with the yen trading at ¥111.84 against the dollar, marking a […]
In an interview with CNBC journalists on Thursday, Beat Wittmann of Porta Advisors – a man with more than 30 years of investment experience, including time spent at UBS, Credit Suisse and Julius Baer – expressed his belief that the British pound is set for further significant falls over the coming year as a result […]
On Monday, US ratings agency Moody’s cut its credit ratings on Australia’s four largest banks by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1. The banks – Westpac, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank – retain their “investment grade” status but are no longer top-rated by the agency. Less well known, smaller banks that were downgraded […]
The New Zealand dollar was the best performing of the FX majors in May. By the month’s end, the currency had gained 2.9% against the US dollar, beating a resurgent euro, which gained 2.6%, into first place. The rapid appreciation of New Zealand’s currency, which has been attributed by Citi Bank to improving trade, strength […]
The UK is on course for a hung parliament following yesterday’s general election and the British currency has tumbled to multi-week lows against most currencies. As of 3am GMT, with around half of the votes counted, it looks fairly likely that the ruling Conservative party will win the most seats, but that it will fall […]
Significant exchange rate volatility should be expected on Thursday and Friday with the following major events on the calendar. UK General Election GBP/USD 3 Month Chart On Thursday, British voters will go to the polling stations to vote in their general election. Campaigning in the election has been interrupted by terrorist attacks in London […]
The US dollar fell across the board yesterday and the Dollar Index (USDX/DXY) fell to 96.67 – its lowest in nearly seven months – following a highly disappointing US jobs report. For traders, the monthly report, which includes numbers for US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings growth, as well as the unemployment and participation rates, […]
The Australian dollar fell sharply on Thursday morning, adding to across-the-board losses on Wednesday, as negative economic data from China easily beat positive Australian data in the game for greatest influence, and as iron ore fell to $55 per ton in the NYMEX futures market. As of 03:30 GMT on Thursday, the Australian dollar sits […]
Of the FX majors, the New Zealand dollar has been the best performer in May. At the end of yesterday’s New York session, with NZD/USD at 0.754, the pair is up 2.9% since May 1st. By comparison, the kiwi’s closest cousin, the Australian dollar, is down 0.5% against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar […]
As of writing, a little before 5am GMT on Tuesday, the Australian dollar has reached 0.75 versus the US dollar. This psychologically important level will be welcomed by Australian dollar bulls who, more than most, have suffered during the past two months after watching the currency decline from 0.7750 to 0.7328 between March 21st and […]
In the past several hours, the euro has surged following the release of comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has said that the single currency is “too weak” for Germany – weakness which is “due to the ECB’s policy” and which “makes German goods…comparatively cheap.” As of writing at 13:35 GMT, the euro is […]
The likelihood of a US rate hike in June is falling fast, as is the US dollar. Just one week ago, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve hiking US interest rates at next month’s meeting – a probability derived from prices in Fed funds futures contracts – stood near 85%. As of Monday, that probability had […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted yesterday that the Australian dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate will fall to 0.7 within 2017 – a move that would mark a near-6% fall from yesterday’s closing rate of 0.7426. Analysts at the bank have come to their conclusion following an in-depth analysis of Australian steel production rates and port […]
In the four-weeks leading up to last Friday’s close (May 12th), the Japanese yen had been one of the world’s worst performing currencies against the US dollar, falling 4.3% within that time. The yen’s weakness during that period marks one hell of a turnaround from the four-weeks immediately prior, in which the yen was one […]
It was a quiet day in markets on Friday. The VIX index closed at 10.4, marginally higher than Monday’s dismal close in the index at 9.8, but remains near to multi-decade lows. Commodities prices – key drivers of CAD, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies – traded in narrow ranges. US WTI oil traded within […]
The New Zealand dollar has fallen more than a cent against the US dollar following this morning’s RBNZ statement. As expected by the market, New Zealand’s official cash rate was kept at its record low of 1.75%, but the dovish tone of the RBNZ’s accompanying statements has surprised many. “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for […]
Former Rothschild banker and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is the new French president. Macron secured almost precisely two-thirds of yesterday’s vote (66.06%) and, in doing so, easily fended off his competition, Marine Le Pen, who secured one-third (33.94%). At 39, Macron will become France’s youngest ever president. He also becomes the first president since 1958 […]
Judging by asset prices, investors are no longer concerned about a Marine Le Pen victory in Sunday’s French election. As of writing, at 05:20 GMT on Friday morning, the euro is buying almost 1.1 US dollars (EUR/USD 1.0989) and is at its highest level against the ‘greenback’ since November-9th, the day of Donald Trump’s surprise […]
Yesterday on BestExchangeRates.com, we suggested that now might be the time to change your Australian dollars into Canadian dollars, having seen the Aussie’s buying power reach 6-month highs on Tuesday. Those words now seem prophetic, given what we saw yesterday in Australian dollar exchange rates. The Australian dollar tumbled across the board yesterday, including against […]
What a difference a week can make! The nagging doubts starting late March when the Euro was seen as the riskiest currency on the planet until after Sunday’s French election, now the Euro is suddenly everyone’s favorite and perhaps people are starting to consider how much more they will need to budget to send their […]
In their latest weekly foreign exchange report, US giant Citi Bank have predicted a rise to 118.0 in USD/JPY in the coming 6-12 months, representing a 7% fall in the dollar buying power of the yen. The yen will depreciate against the dollar as US Treasury yields rebound following future announcements on US fiscal stimulus […]
There’s only one story in town this morning – the battle for Europe’s future, otherwise known as the French general election. As had been predicted for many months, the pro-Europe, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and the far-right, Eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen have made it through to the head-to-head second round of voting, to take […]
Described as a “game-changer” by Deutsche Bank, British prime minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election was the big story of the day on Tuesday and has reignited sterling exchange rates. For months Theresa May had played down the possibility of an election earlier than 2020. In the eyes of many of […]
The US dollar has started the week lower against most currencies as traders play catch up following market holidays on Friday. In Friday’s market update at BestExchangeRates.com, we described how March’s US core inflation fell month-on-month for the first time in seven years, but with many investors away for the Good Friday holiday, we also […]
The Thai baht closed higher against the US dollar again on Thursday, ending the day just several pips short of recording its highest close in 21-months. Against the euro, the baht posted its highest close in 23-months. USD/THB and EUR/THB ended the New York session at 34.37 and 36.40 respectively. The baht continues […]
The theme in financial markets on Tuesday was, once again, of re-positioning into safe haven assets on heightening geopolitical risk. The day saw North Korean state media warn of a nuclear strike on the US if provoked, which was followed by a tweet from president Donald Trump saying that the rogue nation was “looking for […]
Short-term EUR/USD traders would have hoped for more from Wednesday’s news and data releases. Investors learned on the day that the Federal Reserve are planning to shrink their balance sheet (akin to monetary tightening) and that a strong employment trend persists in the world’s largest economy (US ADP employment +263k vs. +184k expected). Nevertheless, the […]
The FX markets welcome China back from a two-day holiday on Wednesday, and markets will be hopeful that the Asian giant’s re-introduction, combined with a host of US data, will spark new life into what has been an uneventful start to the FX week. Again yesterday, like the day before, some of the world’s most […]
The Australian dollar has had a tough couple of weeks. Yesterday, against the U.S. dollar the Aussie finished the FX session down for the third consecutive day (its eighth daily fall in the past ten trading days). As of writing, AUD/USD is down again in Tuesday’s Asian session, trading at 0.7591, marking a 2% fall […]
A new year brings a wealth of sporting delights around the world, from Euro 2016 to the Invictus Games. Here at World First, we help people transfer money around the world. Some of the people we help in 2016 might be out in the US for the Ryder Cup golf, and enjoy it so much […]
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