US Dollar pauses long drop amid Washington political crisis
New Year brings a weak US dollar and chaos in Washington DC with Capitol Hill reduced to a riot zone and President Trump impeached for a second time.
USD Forecasts, Trends and News for 2020
Forecasts for the US dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of USD in the currency markets.
Turkey finally raises rates – Lira jumps 11 percent
On Thursday Turkey’s central bank finally caved into financial markets and jacked up interest rates by a hefty 4.75 per cent raising the benchmark rate to 15 per cent promising to remain tough on inflation.
Markets Volatile after US Election & Vaccine news
The recent period has been volatile for currency markets tossed about by US election uncertainty, stimulus spending doubts and both good and bad news from the COVID-19 frontline.
US Dollar could jump 3 percent vs Euro on Trump win; Parisians flee lockdown
The Euro is slumping as France and Germany resume national lockdowns to combat surging second-wave Covid cases.
U.S. Bank Exchange Rates
In this article we take a look at U.S. Bank exchange rates & international money transfer services compare to other options available to you.
GBP to USD Forecasts
NAB have revised upwards their pound sterling forecasts for 2020 through 2022. It will be very interesting to see whether the British pound will be able to continue its upside move after Britain successfully negotiated a trade deal with the EU.
USD to EUR Forecasts
The relative response to the coronavirus pandemic by the Eurozone, US election uncertainty and central bank stimulus initiatives are pushing down the USD to EUR exchange rate in the second half of 2020.
USD to INR Forecasts
USD/INR forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Indian economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
USD to MXN Forecasts
Since the end of June, the Mexican peso has gained almost 10% against the dollar. USD/MXN forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Mexican economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
AUD to USD Forecasts
AUD/USD forecasts in 2020 are influenced by three factors; the coronavirus impact on economies, changes in the delta between interest rates in Australia and the US and also the trade war between China and the US and now also Australia.
USD to JPY Forecasts
USD/JPY forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Japanese economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
USD to CAD Forecasts
The relative response to the coronavirus pandemic of Canada and the US plus oil market volatility are affecting the USD to CAD exchange rate in 2020.
Travelex US Exchange Rates – BER Review
In this article we take a look at Travelex in the United States, their exchange rates and foreign currency services. Getting your travel money from the local Travelex branch is convenient but with a little planning (and ordering online) you can also save money for your next trip abroad. Travelex US Exchange Rates – How […]
XE Money Transfer – BER Review
XE works on razor thin margins for money transfers to more than 100 countries and nearly always guarantees a fantastic deal. Transfers can be booked online and over the phone and most are processed within a single working day.
TransferWise Borderless Account – BER Review
TransferWise’s Borderless Account allows users to hold and convert funds in 40 different currencies and send and spend internationally, all at the “real” exchange rate and with exceptionally low service fees. Users can also receive major-currency payments free of charge.
WorldFirst Foreign Transfers – BER Review
WorldFirst is a market leader in the international payments space and is consistently ranked among the most reliable and cheapest money transfer handlers for four-figure sums.
OFX Global Currency Account – BER Review
OFX Global Currency Account – Independent BER Review OFX Global Currency Account: A Summary OFX has a 30-year history and is one of the largest foreign exchange specialists in the world. It offers a “Global Currency Account” that allows online sellers to hold, send and receive funds in GBP, EUR, USD, AUD, CAD and HKD. […]
Bank of America Exchange Rates Explained and Compared
In this article we take a look at Bank of America exchange rates & international money transfer services compare to other options available to you.
Coronavirus panic drives US dollar strength
Currency rates were extremely volatile last week as the coronavirus situation worsened day by day with various countries implementing ever-tougher measures to stop the spread of the disease.
Coronavirus spread fears linger – USD strong – AUD at 11 year lows
This week the US Dollar was touching three-year highs when valued against a basket of major currencies. The greenback's traditional role as one of the safe-haven currencies is helped by a domestic economy that is largely immune to the threats of the coronavirus.
Coronavirus unnerves currency markets
The strong start to the year for "risk-on" currencies is already a distant memory.
New Year Optimism Retreats on US/Iran Tension
The threat of a proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq has pared back some of the recent gains of "risk-on" currencies.
AUD/GBP Between a Rock and a Hard Place – USD Strength
Both the Australian dollar and British pound sterling have had a hard time of late caught between the rock of the China/US trade war and the Brexit hard place.
Australia Cuts Interest Rates to Record Low
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
GBP’s Bright Start to the Year Is a Distant Memory
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force "no deal” or a general election.
Australians Swerve Thai Holidays with Exchange Rates in the Gutter
With AUD-THB at a 10-year low, Australians travelling this year to Thailand's wildly popular resorts are facing holiday costs 50 percent higher than those paid in 2012. With exchange rates as they are, those in Oz are choosing better-value destinations.
Canadian Dollar in the Spotlight After Surging to 16-Week High
Lifted by oil, economic data and the Fed, the Canadian dollar has soared against the US dollar to a 16-week high and has reached even more impressive milestones against the pound, euro and Australian dollar.
Booming Commodities Can’t Save Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar is at or near multi-month lows against a number of major currencies in spite of a rampant iron ore market — once a great influence on AUD.
Sterling Nears 5-Month Low Versus Euro
The UK economy is shrinking, as is the pound, which is buying less than 1.12 euros for the first time since mid-January. Investors are becoming increasingly unsettled over Brexit, particularly with Boris Johnson a hot favourite to become the UK's next prime minister.
US Dollar at 10-Week Low After Payrolls Disappoint; Fed Rate Cuts Now a Certainty
Investors dumped the US dollar on Friday after US jobs data came in well short of estimates and cemented expectations for lower US interest rates. In the coming months, the greenback might maintain its value based on safe haven inflows and looser monetary policies in other parts of the world.
Australia Cuts Interest Rates for the First Time in 3 Years
The Australian dollar remains stable in the high US$0.69s following the RBA’s decision on Tuesday to cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1.25 percent.
Pound Could Be 10 Percent Higher at Year-End as No-Deal Brexit Risks Overblown
A “no deal” Brexit remains highly unlikely according to experts at Goldman Sachs and ING, and as such the pound is grossly undervalued and could rise strongly from current levels.
SGD, MYR at 6-Month Lows After Singapore, Malaysia Added to U.S. Currency Watchlist
The currencies of Malaysia and Singapore were trading at 6-month lows against the dollar on Wednesday following news that the US had added the Southeast Asian nations to its watchlist of suspected currency manipulators.
SWIFT Trials Real-Time Transfers in Europe; GPI Network an Answer to Ripple
The operator of the world’s largest financial messaging system, SWIFT, has said it will trial real-time "gpi" cross-border payments using the European Central Bank's TIPS platform. SWIFT gpi has been developed as an answer to distributed ledger payment technologies, most notably Ripple.
Westpac Cuts Australian Dollar Forecasts, Expects Interest Rates to Halve This Year
The struggling Australian dollar will lose a further 5 percent of its value against the US dollar and pound before the year is out, and 3 percent against the euro and New Zealand dollar, Westpac predicted on Friday.
Expensive Holidays for Brits After Pound Slips for Record 13th Day; What Next?
The British pound fell on Wednesday for a record thirteenth consecutive day against the euro. The currency is taking a Brexit-induced beating days before May’s half-term school break — a popular time in the UK for family holidays.
Banks Fined €1.1 Billion for Currency Manipulation
Five banks have been fined a collective €1.07 billion by the European Commission for running a “cartel” that manipulated foreign exchange rates for financial gain.
Sterling in Trouble: Eighth Day of Losses Takes GBP to 3-Month Low
The British pound fell on Wednesday towards a 3-month low against the euro and US dollar as attention turned back to Brexit and after lower-than-expected wage growth lessened prospects for a Bank of England rate hike.
Australian Dollar at 4-Month Low After China Announces Tariff Retaliation
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
Canadian Dollar Shockingly Undervalued, Analysts Say
The Canadian dollar might be worth considerably more towards the end of this year based on research by Scotiabank analysts who describe the currency as being “egregiously” undervalued.
Australian Dollar Leaps as RBA Stands Firm on Interest Rates
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent on Tuesday, spurring big gains for the Australian dollar, which had slipped beforehand to long-term lows against several major currencies. Roughly half of economists had expected rates to be cut by 25 basis points.
AUD/INR: A Perfect Storm for a Higher Exchange Rate
Seasonal weakness, election uncertainty, strong technical support and oil market complications should be more than sufficient to spur an AUD/INR rally into mid-year.
British Pound in Great Form with Brexit Troubles Fading
Constructive Brexit talks between UK politicians have imparted a sense of renewed optimism that has lifted the British pound to a 2-week high against the dollar and to a 3-week high against the euro.
India Pursues Complete Ban on Digital Currencies
Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technologies that support them are at the forefront of remittance-industry innovations, but these are under attack in India, where a complete crypto ban will be proposed in May.
Dollar Turbocharged by Economic Data; At Long-Term High Versus Euro, Franc and Krona
A turbocharged US dollar is likely to be “stronger for longer” after reaching long-term highs against a host of major currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.
Aussie dollar in the trenches after low inflation result
The RBA has resisted cutting interest rates lower than the record 1.5 per cent, however, this week's lower than expected inflation data could make a cut inevitable.
Swiss Franc Slumps to 6-Month Low Versus Euro
The Swiss franc continued its shocking run of form on Tuesday, slipping against the euro to its weakest level in 6 months.
8 Percent Drop Coming Soon for Australian Dollar; RBA “Wants a Weaker Currency”
HSBC has reaffirmed its US66¢ year-end forecast for the Australian dollar, thereby signalling an upcoming 8 percent slide in the world’s fifth most traded currency.
SGD/MYR at 17-Month High; Ringgit Slumps on FTSE Index Deselection
What is arguably Southeast Asia’s most important exchange rate, Singapore dollar-Malaysian ringgit, leapt on Thursday to its highest level since November 2017, driven by FTSE Russell’s decision to reconsider Malaysia’s inclusion in an important bond index.
Commodities Boom Will Take Australian Dollar to US$0.74
The Australian dollar is forecast to climb to US$0.74 in the coming months, supported by a commodities boom that has seen the price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, climb to a 5-year high.
Brexit This Year Now a Toss-Up, Bookmakers Say; What Next for Pound?
With the chance of a 2019 Brexit now reduced to 50 percent, the pound’s value is likely to remain capped for the time being, most likely near US$1.34, experts say. On the downside, US$1.24 is likely should the latest Article 50 extension be used to hold a UK general election.
Euro to Sink to US$1.08, Says ANZ
The euro hasn’t traded as low as US$1.08 since the early portion of 2017, but that’s where we’re heading within the next 3 months, analysts at ANZ believe.
AUD/NZD at 10-Week High and “Likely to Run Higher From Here”
The Australian dollar-New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose on Friday to a 10-week high as traders continue to make bets on monetary policy divergence between the RBA and RBNZ. Even higher rates are expected by teams at TD Securities and Societe Generale.
Bitcoin More Popular Than Visa, MasterCard for Large Payments; Recent Price Surge Only the Beginning (DataLight)
Research has highlighted the popularity of bitcoin for large payments, including those across borders. By transaction volume, bitcoin has nearly caught up with Mastercard and may in future overtake the market leader, Visa. In the markets, bitcoin’s sudden surge earlier this week is yet to be explained.
Get Ready for Sterling’s “Big Finish”; Australian Dollar at 2-Week Low
Goldman Sachs is backing British MPs to soon find a way through the current political deadlock, after which a “big finish” is expected by the British pound. Meanwhile, pessimism surrounds the Australian and New Zealand dollars, both of which have fallen to multi-week lows.
Banks Bet Against Aussie, Kiwi Dollar
For much of this year, banks have been betting on further Australian dollar deprecation, but after last week’s RBNZ shocker, they have also given a thumbs down to the New Zealand dollar.
Shocking Loss for New Zealand Dollar After RBNZ Says a Rate Cut Most Likely
The New Zealand dollar plummeted on Wednesday after the RBNZ said its next move on interest rates was likely to be a cut.
Benign Brexit Outcome Most Likely; Pound to Strengthen, Says Bank of America
Developments this week make a “benign Brexit outcome” the most probable and offer reason enough to be favouring British pound appreciation for the foreseeable future, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have said.
Australian Dollar: Last Week’s Price Action Suggests Further Declines
Given what should have been obvious advantages, the Australian dollar’s inability to gain against the US dollar last week is an ominous sign that suggests further Aussie depreciation in the near term.
US Dollar Plunges After Fed Signals No Rate Hikes This Year
The US dollar crumbled on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2019, thereby backtracking on the two rate hikes it predicted in December.
CBOE Ditches Bitcoin Futures Amid Reduced Interest
Amid declining interest, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, or CBOE, has announced it will no longer offer bitcoin futures contracts once current contracts expire in June.
Canadian Dollar to Lose a Further 5 Percent, Will Soon Buy Only US$0.71 (TD Securities)
Prospects for the Canadian dollar have turned “considerably to the downside” and the currency is likely to lose 5 percent of its value this year, TD Securities has said.
Pound Falls From 21-Month High After Doubts Cast on May’s “Legally Binding” Assurances
The pound fell rapidly away from long-term highs on Tuesday morning after Britain’s Attorney General said that the “legally binding” assurances secured on Monday night by Theresa May merely “reduced the risk” of the UK being trapped in a permanent backstop.
Australian Dollar, Euro Get Lift from “Too Bad to Be True” US Data
US jobs growth of only 20,000 in February, versus expected growth of 180,000, has allowed rest-of-the-world currencies to claw back ground against the US dollar which, until Friday, had been on a stellar run.
Canadian Dollar Still Friendless After GDP; Fair Value Much Lower
After a friendless Friday, the Canadian dollar has continued to lose value at the start of the new week. Now worth C$1.332 per USD, the loonie is at a 12-day low, but it has far further to fall if CIBC’s fair value estimation of C$1.4 is anything to go by.
JP Morgan: Aussie Dollar to Face Hard Times If No Let-Up in Housing Decline
Investors should expect the Australian dollar to face “global scrutiny” and “material downward pressure” should conditions in Australia’s housing market continue to deteriorate, JP Morgan’s head of FX has said.
Sterling Leaps to 21-Month High on Prospects of Brexit Delay, Second Referendum
The British pound has hit a 21-month high against the euro following increased speculation of a delayed Brexit and after Britain’s opposition party leader said he would now back a second referendum on EU membership.
Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rise Most on Hopes for US-China Trade Deal
The Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies have been the best performing majors in recent days. Each has gained nine-tenths of a cent against the US dollar since Thursday, with appreciation fuelled by the market’s upbeat mood towards a potential US-China trade agreement.
Pound at 2-Week High Ahead of May-Juncker Brexit Meeting
The British pound was in high demand on Tuesday ahead of an important meeting between British PM Theresa May and EU officials, at which investors are hoping for a Brexit breakthrough.
Euro to Strike 20-Month Low This Week; $1.12 Beckons
Those intending to pick up euros this week should consider heeding warnings offered by MUFG. The bank expects the euro to move towards cheaper levels in the coming days and it would therefore be unwise to pay rates offered on Monday.
New Zealand Dollar Jumps After RBNZ Says It Won’t Lower Interest Rates
The New Zealand dollar leapt on Wednesday in response to the latest remarks from the RBNZ, which said that interest rates in New Zealand would not be lowered this year or next, wrong-footing investors who had adjusted FX positions to account for lower rates.
Dollar Optimism Drives Markets
Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 8-week high on Tuesday after US lawmakers reached an agreement on border security funding and as hopes build for a breakthrough in US-China trade talks.
Cryptocurrencies Soar: Litecoin Gains 30 Percent
Cryptocurrencies exploded on Friday for reasons not fully understood by analysts. Litecoin was among the day’s stars, gaining 30 percent. Brokers, though, remain skeptical about the rally’s sustainability.
Tough Week for Australian Dollar as RBA Disappoints on Growth, Interest Rates
Further losses on Friday cemented the Australian dollar’s status as the week’s worst performing major currency. Depreciation has been driven by Australia's central bank, which has slashed forecasts for 2019/20 economic growth and signaled it could lower interest rates.
Pound Rejects Lower Prices After Bank of England Slashes Growth Forecast
The pound rejected sub-US$1.29 levels on Thursday even after the Bank of England slashed growth forecasts, indicating underlying strength. Analysts say that the pound will rally to buy US$1.40 should Theresa May secure the EU concessions needed to pass her Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Australian Dollar in the Headlines This Week; Latest RBA Forecasts Due
With a number of Australian data releases, RBA statements and forecasts on the economic calendar, the Australian dollar is likely to be in the headlines this week, for good or bad.
Canada’s Largest Crypto Exchange Files for Bankruptcy
Canada’s largest crypto exchange, QuadrigaCX, has filed for bankruptcy. Additional bad news for the crypto industry was hardly needed given cryptocurrency prices 80 percent below 2018 peaks. Price predictions are now “pointless,” one analyst says.
Pound Reverses from 3-Month High After MPs Reject a Delayed Brexit
The pound is back trading in the US$1.30s after British MPs rejected a proposal to delay the UK’s exit from the European Union, which analysts say increases the likelihood of "no deal."
AUD Steady Ahead of Inflation, FOMC and Trade Talks
The Australian dollar was little changed on Tuesday despite what should be AUD-supportive remarks from an RBA board member. The Aussie remains subdued ahead of important inflation data, a Fed meeting and a second round of trade talks between the US and China.
Investors Ditch US Dollar Ahead of Fed Meeting; GBP/USD at 15-Week High
The US dollar recorded its largest one-day fall in nearly 3 months on Friday as the attention of traders turned back towards an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve.
Researchers Make Sweeping Cuts to Australian Dollar Forecasts
Within recent days, a host of experts have cut forecasts for the Australian dollar, indicating a new wave of pessimism on what is already the past year's worst-performing major currency.
Euro Struggles on Increased Recession Risk; Rand Outlook Worsens After Central Bank Changes Tune on Interest Rates
The euro is under siege following disappointing data and news this week that Germany barely escaped a recession in 2018. The ECB will now wait longer before raising interest rates, analysts say; however, EUR/USD will still end the year higher. In South Africa, a prediction by the country’s central bank that interest rates will be raised only once before 2021 put an end to the rand’s great start to the year.
Australian Dollar to Get “Crucified,” Analyst Says
The Australian dollar could lose as much as 30 percent of its value if a bold prediction from a BNP Paribas researcher is anything to go by. Prominent risks to the Aussie include a Chinese economic slowdown and a deterioration in Australia’s housing market.
Pound Fights Back on Hopes for Soft Brexit; Thai Baht at Long-Term Highs
Despite a crushing defeat for Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday night and a motion of no confidence tabled against the British government—which the government survived on Wednesday—the pound is close to multi-week highs. In emerging markets, the Thai baht remains an outperformer.
Sterling at 7-Week High Ahead of Important Brexit Vote
Ahead of Tuesday’s “meaningful vote” on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, the British pound has strengthened to a 7-week high against the dollar—evidence that investors are increasingly optimistic that a soft Brexit can be achieved.
Euro Fails in Breakout Attempt, Has Mixed Outlook in 2019
Late last week, EUR/USD failed to hold gains above $1.15, disappointing traders who had hoped for a big breakout. For 2019, experts still believe in higher EUR/USD rates, although the euro will likely lose value relative to the pound on any soft-Brexit options. In the short term, too, it may be in trouble.
Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar to Outperform; Yuan at 5-Month High
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly following last Thursday’s “flash crash” and, like the Canadian dollar, is expected to outperform its peers in the near term. Investors remain willing to take on risk but the US dollar remains soft. In Asia, the yuan is expected to weaken beyond ¥7 within the next 6 months.
Outlook for Singapore Dollar Is Bright; Swiss Franc Strong In Spite of Ultra-Loose SNB
The Singapore dollar weakened on Tuesday but is forecast to be the best performing Asian currency in 2019. In Europe, political uncertainties have driven funds into the Swiss franc, elevating its price. The SNB has re-affirmed its commitment to market interventions, which means EUR/CHF at Fr1.1 will be a difficult nut to crack.
USD Nears Peak; Oil Rebound to Send CAD Higher, INR to Record Low
For the US dollar, analysts are predicting significant weakness in 2019. In contrast, the Canadian dollar will likely strengthen amid an energy market rebound, but under the same conditions the Indian rupee will slide to a record low. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are trading higher but fail to inspire confidence.
Aussie Recovers Following “Flash Crash” but Downtrend Intact
The Australian dollar is back trading in the high $0.69s following a wild and rocky Wednesday night. In just a few minutes, a market “flash crash”—blamed on a surprise earnings warning from Apple and thin liquidity—had taken the Aussie down 3.2 percent to a 10-year low of $0.675.
The Yen Is Flying; AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY at Lowest Since 2016
The yen has entered the New Year in much the same form it exited 2018. It climbed on Wednesday to fresh long-term terms highs against many major currencies and is predicted to strengthen further in both the short and long term.
Pound to Rebound Higher in 2019, Says SEB; No-Deal Brexit Unlikely
2019 will be a good one for the British pound, thinks a foreign exchange analyst at SEB. Recent depreciation is overdone, the analyst says, and will be corrected once markets begin to price in the improbability of a no-deal Brexit. Investors should expect a GBP/EUR rally into the mid-€1.17s or higher.
Undervalued Australian Dollar Higher in 2019 (CIBC); Franc, Yen at Multi-Month Highs on Haven Demand
There’s been no letup over Christmas for the Australian dollar, which continues to threaten the 70-US cents handle. The Aussie may appreciate as high as 78 cents in 2019, an expert has said. Meanwhile, safety-driven inflows have forced the franc and yen much higher, but oil prices continue to weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar.
Where Goes Bitcoin in 2019?
2018 was the year that the bitcoin dream came crashing down. The bubble that many had suspected was building in 2017 was realised and the most well-known of digital currencies lost 80 percent of its value. For 2019, prices might sink as low as $1,500, experts say, but might rally in the second half of the year.
Stock Market Rout Sends Australian Dollar Tumbling
Against the US dollar, the Australian dollar fell on Friday to within 0.1 percent of October’s low, a break of which will take the currency to its lowest level in more than 2 ½ years. Investors dumped the risk-sensitive Aussie after heavy selling in equities markets and as a US government shutdown became increasingly likely.
US Dollar Posts Worst Day in 7 Weeks After Fed Cuts Interest Rate Forecasts
The US dollar was sold heavily on Thursday in the aftermath of midweek announcements by the Federal Reserve. Though the Fed raised US interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, it lowered its expectations for rate hikes in 2019, to the disappointment of dollar investors.
Australian Dollar Lacks Inspiration Following RBA Minutes, Looks Cheap Versus CAD, JPY
The Australian dollar continues to stagnate in the aftermath of Monday's RBA meeting minutes and ahead of this week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Barring surprises, the Aussie is likely to remain well supported against the British pound, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen.
US Dollar Strikes 18-Month High, Will Lose Value in 2019
Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar climbed on Friday to an 18-month high as investors sought safer assets in the aftermath of disappointing economic and political developments in Europe and China. Given a growing consensus for dollar weakness in 2019, now might mark an opportune moment for exchanging dollars into foreign currency.
AUD/USD Forecast at $0.75 in 3 Months’ Time; Potential for Extreme AUD/GBP Moves on Wednesday
The Australian dollar has offered broad stability in recent days—a welcome change from last week’s sharp decline. The Aussie will likely trade higher over the coming months, Goldman Sachs has said, although anything goes for AUD/GBP on Wednesday as a vote of no confidence in the British Prime Minister takes place.
Pound at 20-Month Low After PM Cancels Big Brexit Vote; UK Prepares for No-Deal
The British pound was hammered on Monday following news that a House of Commons vote on the proposed EU withdrawal agreement has been cancelled. Against the US dollar, sterling fell to its lowest level since April 2017.
Big Bank Rolls the Dice on British Pound, Is a Buyer Ahead of Crucial Brexit Vote
Credit Agricole is seemingly rolling the dice on the British pound ahead of a hugely important vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday—a vote that will likely shape the nature of Brexit. Via the options market, the French bank is betting on an increase in the pound’s value.
Canadian Dollar the Star After Canada Adds 94k Jobs; Expect Bitcoin at $1,500
The Canadian dollar made widespread gains on Friday after Canada announced its largest increase in employment in 6 years. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell for a fifth day and cryptocurrencies continue downwards. In the absence of more robust earnings growth, traders shouldn’t expect much from the US dollar, CIBC has said.
Canadian Dollar at Cheapest in 18 Months; Buy It Now Ahead of 2019 Rebound
The Canadian dollar fell sharply following Wednesday’s meeting of the Bank of Canada, at which the Bank appeared to imply that interest rates would rise at a slower pace than previously expected. The loonie will, though, see a great deal of support in 2019, experts have said.
More Good News for Aussie, Kiwi; Not So Great for Bitcoin
The Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies gapped higher on Monday after the US and China agreed this weekend to suspend new tariffs on goods worth several hundred billion dollars. Meanwhile, bitcoin sank back below $4,000.
Pound to Lose 25 Percent on Disorderly Brexit, Bank of England Warns
The British pound weakened against all major currencies on Thursday, a day after the Bank of England offered a stark warning on Brexit. Under a “no deal” outcome, sterling will lose between 15 and 25 percent of its value, the Bank said.
USD Slumps as Fed Signals Less Rate Hikes Ahead; AUD, NZD to Benefit Most
In a speech on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that US interest rates are close to “neutral.” As a result, the US dollar suffered one of its sharpest intraday falls this year.
Australian Dollar Worth 5 Percent More by Mid-2019 (CIBC)
In a note to clients this week, CIBC predicted a rise in the Australian dollar to $0.76 by mid-2019. The forecast represents appreciation of 5 percent from Monday afternoon’s quote of $0.724 and will be driven by higher Australian wages, the bank says.
Will the Swiss Franc Be Shaken by Populist Referendum?
A referendum in Switzerland on Sunday will ask whether Swiss law should take precedence over international laws, particularly those coming from the EU. A vote by the people to take back legislative control would undoubtedly weaken the Swiss franc.
Analysts Agree, Bitcoin to Fall Much Further from Here
Bitcoin is on its knees, and rather than suggesting, as they once did, massive “high value” buying opportunities, analysts as a collective are becoming increasingly bearish on bitcoin’s future and on non-government-supported digital currencies as a whole.
Australian Dollar and Euro Heading Higher, Experts Say
Weakness in the Australian dollar since Friday is to be short-lived, experts at National Australia Bank have said. A rally in AUD/USD to 0.74 is on the cards, as are politically-driven moves in EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF towards 0.92 and 1.2.
US Dollar to Fall This Week; Thai Baht Under Threat Following Huge GDP Miss
The US dollar slipped last week and is likely to do so again heading into Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday. Like the dollar, the Thai baht might weaken once traders have fully digested Monday’s hugely disappointing economic data.
Australian Dollar Threatens $0.73; Pound Plunges as Brexit Secretary Resigns
The Australian dollar is benefitting from disarray in Europe and upbeat employment data. The day’s biggest news comes from Europe, though, where the British pound suffered one of its largest intraday declines in recent years following the resignation of the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator.
Investors Dump Cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin Falls $800 to 1-Year Low
Bitcoin's near-$800 decline on Wednesday might not have raised an eyelid six months ago, but in what has become a lifeless market of late, the fall is alarming.
Petro-Currencies Struggle Amid Oil Market Plunge
Undoubtedly, the speed at which the oil market has reversed has shocked foreign exchange traders as much as it has those in the commodities space. Currencies from economies that depend on oil exports can only do so much amid what is now an energy market rout. With Tuesday bringing a twelfth consecutive day of losses for oil, the Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, Malaysian ringgit and Mexican peso all fell to multi-month lows.
Euro Falls to 16-Month Low; Even Lower Prices Likely This Week
Political risks continue to weigh on the euro, which slipped on Monday to a 16-month low against the dollar. We’ll likely see an even weaker euro later in the week but long-term prospects for the currency look good, analysts say.
AUD, NZD Lead the Pack; No Imminent Recovery for CAD (SocGen)
The Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies were way out in front this week on the list of top performing FX majors. The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, continues to suffer from what is now a technical bear market in crude oil. Sterling is again under Brexit-related pressure amid reports of potential UK ministerial resignations.
Philippine Peso Is Back in Business but Downtrend to Resume, Thinks DBS
There’s life in the old dog yet. The Philippine peso, a currency that has repeatedly made news for the wrong reasons, is among the best performers of the past month. Respective gains of 3.3 percent and 6.2 percent over the past month against the US dollar and euro have given holders of pesos cause for […]
Hard to Bet Against USD Despite Midterms and Rough Start to November
FX markets lacked volatility on Tuesday ahead of US midterm elections, the results of which will begin to trickle in after 7pm EST. November typically represents the best month of the year for USD and recent losses arguably offer a grab-it-now opportunity to get the currency at improved exchange rates.
Australian Dollar Outlook: Huge Gains Put an End to Technical Downtrend
Just what the doctor ordered! A 1.3 cent rally on Thursday marked the Australian dollar’s best day since early 2017. A further half-cent gained on Friday morning, prior to the day’s big event, US non-farm payrolls, took AUD/USD to a 5-week high of $0.726. Only a week ago, the struggling Aussie was quoted at a 2-½-year […]
GBP, AUD, NZD Jump as UK-EU Reach Deal on Financial Services
The mood was buoyant in foreign exchange markets on Thursday following news that the UK has achieved a deal with the EU on financial services that would give London’s banks continued access to European markets post-Brexit. Together with the pound, currencies that benefit from the switch to “risk on,” like the Australian dollar and New […]
Dollar Strikes 16-Month High; Euro FX Down in the Dumps; Mexican Peso Falls Sharply
Developments outside the US allowed for the dollar to appreciate against a basket of currencies to a sixteen-month high on Wednesday. The ICE-maintained US dollar Index, which provides a weighted-mean measure of the greenback’s value against the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and Swedish krona, traded above 97.0 for the second […]
Experts Turn Bullish on Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar is saying “no” to the 70 US cents level as it rallies on Thursday along with Chinese stock markets. The Aussie also continues to appreciate from long-term lows against the pound and euro, and is undervalued against the New Zealand dollar, argues Westpac.
Canadian Dollar Gets Interest Rate Boost; Rand Dips on Budget Disappointment
The Canadian dollar received a significant boost on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada said it would “need to raise [interest rates] to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target.” As widely expected, the BoC also hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent. The Canadian dollar strengthened by nearly a […]
Manufacturing Weakness Creates Further Uncertainty for Sterling
The British pound showed resilience on Tuesday in the face of data showing the fastest decline in UK manufacturing orders in three years. Pound uncertainty prevails, however, and a vote of no confidence in British P.M. Theresa May draws closer.
Yuan Reaches New Low as Slowdown and Tariffs Bite; 7.0 to the Dollar Likely Next Year
Friday saw the Chinese yuan strike a 21-month low against the dollar of 6.941. A move to and perhaps through 7.0 to the dollar, which remains a symbolic level for many, now seems likely within the next year.
AUD Downtrend to End with Close Above $0.72; Prepare for November USD Buying
The Australian dollar will have to overcome seasonal weakness to rally from here but a mere 1 percent rise might be all that’s needed to begin a broader recovery, analysts have said. For the US dollar, appreciation is expected heading into year-end but the trend towards de-dollarization continues, this time in Venezuela.
Focus Turns to Europe Ahead of Big Brexit Meeting; Stay Long Euros; Krona Revived
All eyes on Wednesday will be on the meeting between EU leaders and British Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels, at which some still hope a Brexit deal might be struck. Expect volatility in sterling and euro rates throughout the evening. Meanwhile, the Swedish krona continues to outperform in Europe on expectations for tighter Riksbank policy.
Australian Dollar Steady Despite Risk Aversion, Sterling to Get Wild and Bitcoin Makes Its Move
This week’s flight from risky assets, evident from massive losses in equities, has yet to affect the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. The yen is firmer though, bitcoin has finally broken lower and options traders are paying up for protection against future sterling volatility.
Crypto Industry on the “Brink of Implosion,” Researchers Say
As measures of crypto volatility reached long-term lows on Tuesday, a new study from UK-based researchers was released suggesting the future is bleak for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry.
EUR/GBP at 3-Month Low; EUR/USD Much Higher Next Year
The Brexit-driven EUR/GBP exchange rate opened on Monday at a 3 ½-month low as investors continue to bet on the UK and EU striking a deal. Against the dollar, the euro will be worth as much as 13 percent more next year, according to a new forecast from ING.
Higher Interest Rates Boost USD but Spell Trouble for Asia FX
Friday’s announcement by the BLS that unemployment in the US has fallen to its lowest level in half a century further firmed expectations for US interest rates and was sufficient to drive the US dollar to fresh long-term highs against currencies throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar Plumb New Depths; AUD/CAD at 8-Year Low
In foreign exchange markets, the Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies are highly correlated. Given recent sentiment, it was no surprise, then, to see both make fresh multi-year lows on Thursday. Market commentators see little changing for the Antipodes in the near term.
“Avoid GBP,” Forecasters Say; Swiss Franc Volatility to Increase
It’s no time to be brave with your British pounds, think foreign exchange experts at Crédit Agricole. “Stay conservative; avoid GBP,” the bank’s research team wrote on Tuesday. The pound has had a mixed year. As of writing, its 3.9 percent year-to-date loss against the US dollar ($1.299) is balanced by a 5.2 percent gain […]
Canadian Dollar’s Near-Vertical Rally Continues as US-Canada Reach Trade Deal
What started last week as a data and OPEC-driven rally has become something of a rout, with the Canadian dollar battering other currencies again on Monday following news that Canada and the United States, together with Mexico, have finally agreed a trade deal.
Australian Dollar Set for Double-Digit Rally; Will Be Worth 82 US Cents Next Year! (UBS)
UBS has added themselves to a growing list of experts predicting a broad recovery in the Australian dollar. Against the US dollar, the bank is offering a consensus-busting Aussie forecast of $0.82 for 2019 year-end, indicating a 14 percent rise from current levels.
Yen Falls to 9-Month Low and Era of Cheap Money Ends in Hong Kong
The US dollar was the best of the majors on Thursday—it broke to a nine-month high versus the yen and forced a retreat in the Australian dollar back to the low $0.72s. In Hong Kong, commercial lending rates have been raised for the first time in twelve years, indicating the beginning of the end for cheap money in the region.
End of “Accommodative” Monetary Policy Sparks US Dollar Volatility
The Federal Reserve raised the upper level of US interest rates to 2.25 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected, while also dropping longstanding terminology from its statement relating to the “accommodative” level of monetary policy. The dollar was volatile as a result.
Bitcoin Ready for Massive Move but Which Way?
The market for bitcoin is becoming more and more compressed. Bitcoin has been squeezed ever-tighter for much of this year and this stored energy will surely be released at some stage, manifesting in a violent lurch in one direction, up or down. But which way are we heading?
Australian Dollar Has Best Week in 9 Months; Sterling Has a Shocker
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
Time to Exchange British Pounds: Currency Is Under Siege Following Latest Brexit Deal Humiliation
The British pound has been sold widely on Friday following Thursday’s comprehensive rejection by EU leaders of the UK’s proposed Brexit deal—the “Chequers” plan. The Chequers plan, which outlines terms for the UK’s departure from the EU and which includes a “combined customs territory” on the Irish border, “would not work,” said European Council President […]
Australian Dollar to Bounce Back Next Year; Investors Sense Buying Opportunity
As investors begin playing the long game, they are reconsidering their views on the Australian dollar. An inevitable tightening of Australian monetary policy, most likely next year, will eliminate one of the chief reasons for recent AUD pessimism. What was once a currency worth avoiding might now offer a heavily-discounted bargain.
What Next for the US Dollar?
The US dollar is among the best performing currencies of 2018. In fact, ranked against twenty of the world’s most important currencies, the dollar beats all bar the Mexican peso, the Japanese yen, the Norwegian krone and Swiss franc. Traders are, however, pondering a recent dollar decline. In mid-August, on a trade-weighted basis, the dollar […]
Ruble Heading Higher After Surprise Rate Hike; Canadian Dollar Upside Limited, Warns MUFG
The Russian ruble climbed to a nine-day high on Friday after the Russian central bank surprised markets with a 25-basis-point increase in interest rates. In other news, MUFG are reminding traders not to expect too much from the Canadian dollar upon a US-Canada trade deal, which draws closer.
Relief in Emerging Market FX After Turkey Raises Interest Rates
There was widespread relief among emerging market investors on Thursday after the Turkish central bank finally raised interest rates to protect the embattled lira. Elsewhere, the dollar lost value for a fourth consecutive day and ethereum stabilized after a ten-day fall.
More Upside Expected for Norwegian Krone
The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency on Monday. The krone benefitted from better-than-expected inflation data and an uptick in European sentiment that followed this weekend’s Swedish election and Michel Barnier's prediction that a Brexit deal will be concluded within 6-8 weeks.
EUR/GBP Set for Big Move Lower on Impressive Technical Formation
The euro fell sharply against the British pound on Friday after the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he was determined to strike a deal with the UK. A near-perfect Head and Shoulders pattern now indicates a move in EUR/GBP into the high 0.87s.
Bitcoin Bloodbath After Goldman Sachs Scraps Plans for Crypto Trading Desk
The world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, has lost 15 percent of its value since Wednesday morning. The crypto bloodbath has also taken 25 percent off ethereum. Dramatic declines began after reports indicated that Goldman Sachs is to scrap plans for a crypto trading desk.
AUD, CAD and NZD Continue to Fall
A better-than-expected print for Australian GDP growth was unable to prevent further Australian dollar weakness on Wednesday. After a short-lived jump on the 0.9 percent second-quarter reading (0.7 percent growth expected), the Aussie fell early in the European session to a two-year low of 71.45 US cents. In the hours following GDP, it also lost […]
Rand Misery Piled On as South Africa Enters Recession
The rand fell sharply on Tuesday following news that South Africa has entered a recession. The dollar, meanwhile, continues to react favourably whenever the spotlight is turned towards US tariffs and a potential trade conflict with China.
Australian Dollar at Lowest Since 2016
The Australian dollar really doesn’t have much going for it. A 2.2 percent loss between Tuesday and Friday had the Aussie settling for the week at 71.9 US cents, which marked its lowest weekly close since December 2016, and it isn’t doing much better versus the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Perhaps […]
Frightening FX Losses in Argentina; SNB Might Intervene to Weaken Franc
The currency situation in Argentina is becoming desperate. In a single three-hour period on Thursday, the Argentine peso shed 19 percent of its value as it slid to 41.47 to the dollar. The peso had already lost 45 percent since January. With the peso’s spiral downwards, default risk in Argentina moves ever higher, resulting in […]
Bitcoin to End 2018 “Explosively” on Emerging Market Recovery
Bitcoin is finally back above $7,000 and it might now end the year “explosively higher” according to one expert.
Loonie Makes Most of US-Mexico Trade Deal but Will Struggle from Here, Says TD
The past 24 hours in markets have been dominated by news that the US and Mexico have reached a preliminary trade deal. The Mexican peso initially gained as reports came in but now trades at pre-announcement levels. The Canadian dollar gained handsomely but is set to struggle from hereon in according to Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Yuan Finds Stability After PBOC Policy Change
The Chinese yuan posted its highest open in 4 ½-weeks on Monday, at a rate of 6.803 to the dollar. Stability in the rapidly falling yuan follows the reintroduction of the “counter-cyclical factor” by the People’s Bank of China on Friday – a sign that Chinese authorities are uncomfortable with further depreciation.
Euro to Get More Expensive After Terrific Week, Banks Warn
It was a cracking week for the euro. Boosted by soft rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and confidence-boosting July-meeting minutes from the ECB, the euro gained against all other G10 currencies.
Bets Against IDR, SGD and INR Increase
A Reuters survey of investors this week has shown increased bearishness on the Indonesian rupiah, Singapore dollar and Indian rupee. Each of the Asian currencies has lost value this year amid concerns for global trade and following emerging market currency crises in Argentina and Turkey.
Australian Dollar Hammered on Imminent PM Change
The Australian dollar had a shocker on Thursday on the back of domestic political uncertainty. Per reports, current Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is likely to be replaced by Peter Dutton before the week is out.
Thai Baht at 5-Month High After Dollar Stumbles on Trump Remarks
The US dollar continues to fall from long-term highs. Tuesday marked the fourth consecutive trading day of declines for the Dollar Index, which traded at a fourteen-month high of 97.0 last week. Approaching the end of Tuesday’s European session, the index had slumped into the 95.40s. The dollar was affected for the worse on Monday […]
Stunning Inflation Print Makes CAD’s Day; MXN Firms on Trade Agreement Hopes
The Canadian dollar gained across the board on Friday on the back of stunning inflation data that smashed market expectations. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso continues to be this year’s best performing currency; it firmed again on Friday on rumours that Washington would soon agree to a compromise on Mexican farm exports.
Westpac: Risks to the New Zealand Dollar Increase
FX traders will be thankful for calm in emerging markets on Tuesday after spectacular falls in recent days. While other trends continue unabated, most notably the rising US dollar and falling euro, Westpac are weighing in on the New Zealand dollar, suggesting that an RBNZ cut is now more likely than ever before.
Dollar and Yen Soar on Flight to Safety; Turkey Leads Turmoil in EM FX
The US dollar and Japanese yen soared on Friday as traders fled risk-sensitive currencies. Turmoil in emerging market FX is being led by the Turkish lira, which fell 15 percent in twelve hours after President Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports.
Canadian Dollar at Multi-Month Highs; NZD/CAD Sinks to Lowest Since December
Entering the second trading week of August, the Canadian dollar remains at or near multi-month highs against many of the world's major currencies. The "loonie" has been well supported since the end of June following a hawkish repricing of Canadian interest rate expectations.
Australian Dollar Benefits from Sales and Export Data; RBA to Dominate Next Week
The Australian dollar was the best performing major during Friday’s European session. The “Aussie” rallied by as much as 0.8 percent to rates above 74 US cents after robust Australian economic data.
US Dollar on the March; Markets Yet to Price in Full Extent of Fed Hikes, Says SEB
The US dollar made inroads against most of the world’s currencies on Thursday as trade fears forced investors into safer assets.
FX Markets Subdued Despite Trump-EU Deal to Avoid a Trade War
Trade tensions were eased on Wednesday after the US announced it had agreed to work towards zero tariffs on “non-auto industrial goods” with the European Union. Unlike equity markets, which rallied strongly on the news, FX markets were little changed on Thursday morning.
Mexican Peso at 3-Month High Ahead of Important Trade Talks
Ahead of important trade talks in Europe and Washington, the Mexican peso traded on Wednesday at its strongest level in nearly three months, at 18.7 to the dollar. The peso also rallied to its best level this year versus the euro, at 21.9.
Shock as Turkish Central Bank Stands Pat on Interest Rates; Lira Plunges
The Turkish lira shed 3.3 percent in a matter of seconds on Tuesday afternoon after the Turkish central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 17.75 percent, defying the market’s unanimous forecast for a 100-basis point hike.
Yen Is Star Performer, Yuan Devalued and Bitcoin Finds a Bottom
The Japanese yen has been the star performer of recent days and by Monday afternoon in London it was once again trading higher against most of the world’s currencies. When last seen, USD/JPY stood at 111.
Yen Weakness Persists and New Zealand Dollar Jumps on Inflation
The yen fell on Monday to two-month lows against the pound and euro, and recovered only slightly from Friday's six-month low against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar surged midway through Tuesday's Asian session after upbeat news on inflation.
NZD Outlook: Inflation Data to Set the Tone for the Coming Months
Tuesday’s second-quarter inflation data will set the tone for the New Zealand dollar for the rest of the summer, say banks. With inflation risks skewed to the downside, a lower kiwi is more likely than not.
Rupee Has Best Day Since 2016 and More Strength Likely
Thursday’s gain of 56 paise over the dollar market the Indian rupee’s best one-day performance since November 2016. The rupee thrived after oil prices plunged on Wednesday.
Yuan and Australian Dollar Hit by Latest Round of US Tariffs
Traders offloaded Chinese yuan and Australian dollars on Wednesday after the US government said it would introduce 10 percent tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
USD/CAD to Trade at 1.35 on Interest Rate Surprise
The Canadian dollar will weaken to 1.35 to the US dollar should the Bank of Canada surprise investors on Wednesday by keeping interest rates on hold, says the latest research report from BNP Paribas.
Swedish Krona On Course for Fourth Day of Gains
The Swedish krona is on course for a fourth consecutive day of gains as investors continue to respond with positivity to this week’s revised inflation forecasts.
Double-Digit Fall for the Australian Dollar a Possibility, Says Money Manager
The Australian dollar may be in line for a double-digit fall into the “mid-60s” versus the US dollar before the summer of next year, says a senior money manager at Pendal Group.
Xoom Reviewed
We take a look at the Xoom service and check how good their exchange rates are.
Dollar Soars and Euro Tanks as Central Banks Plot Different Paths
The euro plunged on Thursday and the US dollar had one of its best days in recent memory after two of the world’s most important central banks announced decisions on monetary policy. EUR/USD, now at 1.156, shed 2 percent, marking its biggest one-day decline since the summer of 2016. Offering contrasting messages were the US […]
Rand at Six-Month Low but Predicted Higher by Year-End
The South African rand has so far been unable to escape the clutches of a broader emerging markets sell-off that shows no signs of letting up. The rand slid on Wednesday morning to six-month lows against eight of the FX G10 (the exceptions being the yen and Swiss franc) and has now suffered a double-digit […]
New Zealand Dollar Heading to US$0.64
The New Zealand dollar will be worth only 64 US cents within the next twelve months, say economists at Westpac.
Danske Bank: Euro Upside Limited, No Return to the 1.20s Near Term
The euro’s 0.9 percent gain against the dollar last week to 1.1766 marked the end of a seven-week losing spell and offered hope to euro bulls; however, confidence in the single currency would be misplaced, say researchers at Danske Bank, who forecast “limited [euro] upside potential” between now and year-end. The euro remains down more […]
Bitcoin Loses Its Sparkle and Mexican Peso at 15-Month Low
Bitcoin, it would seem, has lost its sparkle. CNBC are reporting that Google searches for “bitcoin” have fallen 75 percent since January – a statistic suggestive not only of a lack of interest in the world’s largest cryptocurrency, but also of a lack of new buyers. At $7,700, bitcoin is trading at a 55 percent […]
Baht to Trade at 30 to the Dollar, Predicts Bank of Ayudhya
The Thai baht may trade at 30 to the dollar early next year, said one of Thailand’s largest banks on Wednesday. Tak Bunnag, head of global markets at the Bank of Ayudhya, predicts that the baht will appreciate to 31.25 per dollar by the end of this year, from levels a shade below 32 at […]
Will It Be a Sweet or Sour June for the US Dollar?
June has, for the past decade, been a month in which the US dollar comes unstuck. Per the Dollar Index (DXY), the dollar has lost value in eight of the past ten Junes, and in one of the two profitable years, holders of dollars would have had to suffer a 3 percent intra-month drawdown to […]
Indian Rupee Ends the Week with a Bang
On Friday, the Indian rupee had one of its best days in recent years, with gains of 49 paise and 72 paise against the dollar (₹66.91) and euro (₹78.13) respectively. The rupee was supported after data showed India’s economy growing faster than any other in the world, including China. For USD/INR, now at a one-month […]
Trump Slaps Tariffs on Allies but Calm Prevails Ahead of US Jobs Data
The big news for investors on Thursday was Washington’s confirmation that steel and aluminium products reaching the US from Europe, Canada and Mexico – all important allies – would be subject to trade tariffs. Foreign leaders raged against the decision and announced plans for immediate retaliation. On Tuesday, Washington had already announced tariffs on $50 […]
Canadian Dollar Jumps on Hawkish BoC; USD/CAD to Reach 1.18, Says Goldman Sachs
The Canadian dollar jumped on Wednesday following a surprisingly hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada. USD/CAD, which had been trading at levels above 1.3, fell sharply in the two hours following the BoC’s monthly meeting to 1.2835, at which it still trades at the time of this report (17:00 Singapore, GMT +8). The Canadian […]
The Week Ahead for EUR, USD and JPY
Of the world’s major currencies, the euro has been among the hardest hit in recent weeks. A sixth consecutive week of losses has seen EUR/USD fall into the mid-1.16s, to a six-month low; EUR/JPY to the mid-127s, to an eleven-month low; and the past fortnight’s fall in EUR/CHF from levels near 1.20 to 1.155 represents […]
Ruble and Rand Best Performers During Busy Week for Emerging Market FX
It was a busy week for financial markets; one in which central banks disappointed, entire countries were in crisis, new leaders were elected, commodities thrived and Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran. With that said, emerging market currencies were erratic last week, and generally lost value, none more so than the Argentine peso which fell on […]
New Zealand Dollar Slumps on RBNZ; Ringgit Does the Same on Shock Election Result
The New Zealand dollar and Malaysian ringgit dominated the headlines during Thursday’s Asian session; both for disappointing reasons. Holders of New Zealand dollars had to watch their currency drop more than a percent against the US dollar in the hours following the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, to just 69.1 cents – […]
Australian Dollar Now Worth Less Than Singapore Dollar
The Australian dollar has been among the hardest hit of major currencies in recent months. Heavy losses since January have been widely reported in the financial press, with most commentaries focusing on the Aussie’s 8.6 percent decline against the
There’s a Crisis in Argentina: Central Bank Moves to Prop Up Peso with 40 percent Interest Rate
Spare a thought for the Argentine peso. The ill-fated currency of South America’s second largest economy lost 6 percent of its value last week, taking its twelve-month loss to 30 percent. Now at 21.82 per US dollar, the peso is worth less than at any point since Argentina’s fixed exchange rate system was abandoned in […]
Higher Yields Support Dollar’s Best Week Since Trump Elected
It was a disappointing end to the week for the US dollar but enough was achieved between Monday and Thursday for it to record its best week since bubbling over in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election in November 2016. Investors piled into dollars as yields rose amid a massive increase in the supply of […]
Swiss Franc Slides to Symbolic 1.2 Per Euro Level, Cheered On by SNB
Thursday and Friday saw the Swiss franc slide through the symbolic 1.2 per euro level at which the Swiss National Bank capped the franc’s value prior to “Francogeddon” in January 2015. The franc has weakened steadily since it traded at 0.965 per euro in the aftermath of the SNB’s abrupt abolition of the currency cap, […]
Commodities to Battle Air Strikes and Trade War for Influence on Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar, together with other risk currencies, will likely start next week under pressure following the launch on Saturday morning of air strikes on Syrian weapons research and storage targets by the US, UK and France. The strikes come after a chemical weapons attack in Douma one week ago, which killed an estimated 75 […]
Bitcoin Has Bumper Week as Big Players Prepare to Enter the Market
Bitcoin put up its best showing since February last week, as it rose 17 percent to $8,200. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is down 60 percent from December’s highs but remains one of the hottest topics for investment amateurs and professionals alike. One reason for bitcoin’s current strength is, according to analysts, the entrance […]
EUR/SEK at 8-Year High as Krona Struggles with Dovish Riksbank, Trade War
Scandinavia’s most important exchange rate, EUR/SEK, continues to make new ground for this decade. The rate climbed last week to its highest since 2009, at 10.35, reflecting a grim outlook for the Swedish krona – one in which it wrestles with a dovish central bank and the threat of an international trade war. The krona, […]
Yuan at Strongest Since 2015, Suggestive of Chinese Bid to Avert a Trade War
In both onshore and offshore markets, the Chinese yuan climbed in the past week to its highest level against the dollar since the summer of 2015, and in doing so, posted its largest quarterly gain in a decade – a gain of 3.7%. Now worth 6.27 per dollar, the yuan’s rise is the result of […]
Turkish Lira at All-Time Low on Economic, Political Woes
The Turkish lira’s perpetual decline continues. Friday’s print in the dollar-lira exchange rate of 4.034 marked yet another all-time low in the lira’s value and 2018 is now the sixth calendar year out of the past seven, and the ninth year from the past thirteen, that a record low has been penciled in. The lira […]
HKMA to Defend Hong Kong Dollar After Slide to Extreme of Currency Peg
Six consecutive weeks of losses for the Hong Kong dollar make it near-inevitable that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will have to defend the currency’s peg at some point in the upcoming week. The Hong Kong dollar, which has been restricted since 2005 to exchange rates between 7.75 and 7.85 per US dollar, weakened on […]
Sterling to Remain Steady but Bitcoin, Canadian Dollar Face Difficult Times Ahead
Little has been felt in foreign exchange markets from the UK’s recent political entanglement with Russia, which escalated last week with a tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats. The pound gained last week against both the dollar and euro and will remain steady for the foreseeable future, according to the collective opinion of FX analysts surveyed by […]
Protectionism Clouds U.S. Dollar Outlook
Any boost the U.S. dollar might receive ahead of Wednesday’s anticipated Fed rate hike is likely to be offset by the longer-term ramifications of newly introduced U.S. tariffs and Washington’s broader trade policies, thinks the team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Supporting BAML’s belief are the results of the bank’s March survey of sixty-six […]
Thai Baht Spurred On by Tourism; Rallies to 4-Year High Versus Dollar
Fuelled by an improvement in risk appetite and a pick-up in the number of foreign visitors to Thailand, the baht climbed on Wednesday to a four-year high of 31.1 per dollar. In doing so, the baht solidified its position as Asia’s best performing currency of the year. Volatility in the baht had dried up in recent […]
Australian Dollar Finds Its Feet After 5-Week Slump but Will End the Year No Higher, Says Poll
The Australian dollar made sweeping gains last week as investors’ preference for higher-yielding assets trumped a sequence of poor Australian economic data. The currency’s broad climb marked the end of a difficult period that had begun in late January and came as a new poll suggested a lack of FX volatility for the remainder of […]
Canadian Dollar at 2-Year Low Versus Euro as Washington Imposes Steel, Aluminium Tariffs
The Canadian dollar is on course for its worst weekly performance in more than a year as traders reassess their exposure to the currency in response to new US trade tariffs, slower economic growth and a softer oil price. At the end of the Asian business week and with much of Friday’s European session already […]
BER-News: Bitcoin below $US10K mark (again)
Among the world’s ten most actively traded currencies, it was the Chinese yuan that was leading the pack approaching the end of the Asian business week. Last week: majors all down Aussie dollar (AUD) was down last week, retreating from US0.80 cents, on Australia’s disappointing rise in private sector wages, their massive contraction […]
Chinese Yuan Best of the Week and More Appreciation to Come, Predicts SEB
Among the world’s ten most actively traded currencies, it was the Chinese yuan that was leading the pack approaching the end of the Asian business week. As of 7:30pm in Singapore (GMT+8), the yuan’s marginal 0.2% appreciation for the week to 6.331 per US dollar was enough to seal top spot, with the dollar itself […]
Philippine Peso in Distress; Nears 12-Year Low on Record Trade Deficit, Lower Reserve Requirements
It could hardly have been a worse start to 2018 for the Philippine peso. On Monday, the peso traded at 52.5 per dollar for the first time since the summer of 2006, and year-to-date values show it bettering only the Argentine peso in the list of the world’s worst performing currencies. The peso has lost […]
BER-News: Cryptos hung onto recent gains.
Last week’s much-improved US inflation data had the desired effect on US rate expectations which have adjusted to indicate a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. Ordinarily, such a revision to expectations would fuel a transfer of hot money into US dollars, yet dollar traders continue to chart their own […]
Inflation Leads US Rate Expectations Higher but Dollar Traders Don’t Care
This week’s much-improved US inflation data has had the desired effect on US rate expectations, with the yield on two-year Treasuries climbing again on Friday, as it did on Thursday, to levels above 2.2%. Meanwhile, prices in derivatives markets have adjusted to indicate a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. […]
FX Calm Amid Broader Market Carnage; Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin Benefit
During a week which saw global equity markets suffer their largest losses in two years and broader market volatility pick up, foreign exchange markets were surprisingly calm. A flight to safety benefitted the US dollar, which finished higher against a basket of currencies for the second consecutive week; and the Japanese yen, which at one […]
Bitcoin at $8,000 as Regulators and Facebook Strangle Optimism
Bitcoin’s tumble continued on Friday, with the cryptocurrency falling at one stage by fifteen percent to just $7,960 – sixty percent lower than December’s high just shy of $20,000 ($19,891). An afternoon rebound saw bitcoin end the day close to $8,600 but that did little to improve sentiment in the face of scrutiny from regulators […]
Dollar Doldrums: USD Suffers Worst Day in 10-Months Despite Pick-Up in Core Inflation
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suffered its worst one-day decline in ten months on Friday in spite of an unexpected acceleration in the rate of core inflation and what appeared to be an upward revision to U.S. interest rate expectations. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, […]
CAD Steals Headlines from Dollar on Dramatic Employment Boost; Asia-Pac Currencies Make Sweeping Gains
The U.S. dollar was upstaged by its Canadian counterpart on Friday following the release of some spectacular Canadian employment data. Statistics Canada said on Friday that the nation’s unemployment rate fell in December to just 5.7% – the lowest rate in forty years – and that Canadian businesses added 78,600 new jobs. Ahead of the […]
Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar at 10-Week Highs on Commodities Strength; Rand and Ringgit Impress
The Canadian dollar climbed on Friday to its highest level in ten weeks on the back of an impressive end-of-year rally in the prices of oil, copper and gold. Other commodities-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, South African rand and Malaysian ringgit, among others, were also well supported. As WTI crude oil reached a two-and-a-half-year […]
Bitcoin Falls $1,000 as South Korean Government Moves to Regulate Crypto-Trading
Bitcoin was back below $14,000 on Friday ($13,995) in the wake of new measures from the South Korean government to better regulate the cryptocurrency and warnings from the Indian finance ministry, who likened bitcoin to a “Ponzi scheme.” On Thursday, bitcoin had tumbled more than $1,000 on a statement from the South Korean government in […]
Philippine Peso Defies Forecasters, Dollar Down and Bitcoin Plunges
The Philippine peso was best in Asia last week and continues to defy pessimistic forecasts from earlier in the year. USD/PHP’s move to 49.99 on Friday was the pair’s first journey through the psychologically important rate of 50 since June, and a 3.2% appreciation in the peso’s value since November 1st places it second only […]
Westpac, ING Forecasts: Australian Dollar Set for 10 percent Decline and Sterling to Climb on Trade Deal, Hawkish BoE
The Australian dollar is set for a double-digit (11%) fall to just 68 US cents in the coming eighteen months, according to the revised forecast of Australia’s fourth largest bank, Westpac. In a note to clients, the team at Westpac said this week that it sees a fall from Friday’s AUD/USD 3 Month Chart Regular […]
Bitcoin Is a Bubble: It’s a “Classic Case,” Says RBNZ Head
Bitcoin looks “remarkably like a bubble” to the Acting Governor of New Zealand’s central bank, Grant Spencer. Speaking to TVNZ this weekend, Spencer – who will lead the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee until March – said that bitcoin appears to be a “classic case” of a financial bubble. “Over the centuries we’ve seen bubbles and […]
Dollar Higher Following Positive Jobs Report, Baht at 31-Month High and Bitcoin Futures Go Live
A better-than-expected US payrolls number on Friday affirmed investor expectations for a hike in US interest rates next week and supported the US dollar, which rose against a basket of currencies for a fourth consecutive day. Futures markets are now pricing in a 90.2% probability of the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the […]
Good spirits in the currency markets + Fed holds off hiking rates
Hi there, ahead of some major announcements investors were in surprisingly good spirits yesterday, indicated by a stronger New Zealand dollar, South Korean won, rupee and a faltering yen. Sterling is subdued against the majority of its peers this morning as investors are reluctant to move ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision […]
Markets Upbeat Ahead of FOMC and Trump Decision; Korean Won Best in Asia-Pac
Ahead of major announcements in the coming days, investors were in surprisingly good spirits on Wednesday, indicated by a stronger New Zealand dollar, won, rupee and a faltering yen. Weakness in Asia-Pac FX would have been forgiven ahead of Thursday’s announcements by the FOMC (Wednesday in the US and Europe), Bank of England and Donald […]
Rand Continues Recovery Following Shocking Mid-Term Budget
The South African rand continued its recovery on Tuesday, strengthening to levels close to 14.0 per dollar, following last week’s budget-induced tumble. USD/ZAR had climbed as high as 14.35 on Friday – the rand’s weakest level against the dollar in eleven months – as investors dumped South African assets in response to last week’s mid-term […]
Ruble Volatile After Rate Cut; Reverses From 8-Week Low
The Russian ruble has been one of the most volatile emerging market currencies in recent years, and it ended this trading week in much the same way. On Friday, USD/RUB’s high-low range ran close to 1.1 rubles, marking the Russian currency’s most volatile session since July. Yesterday’s excitement in USD/RUB was largely the result of […]
Asia-Pac Currencies Make Waves Against Euro After ECB Extends Asset Purchases
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
Korean Won at 7-Week High, Canadian Dollar Suffers and ECB to Announce Plans for QE
The South Korean won climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday (a USD/KRW low) of 1123.3 after third-quarter GDP data showed South Korea’s economy growing at its fastest pace in seven years. Third-quarter growth of 1.4% was well above the median estimate of 1.0% and an improvement on second-quarter expansion of 0.6%. […]
Philippine Peso at Eleven-Year Low and Australian Dollar Falls on CPI Miss
The hearts of those holding Philippine pesos were broken on Tuesday after the currency slipped to its weakest level against the dollar in more than eleven years. The peso weakened by 33 centavos to 51.85 per dollar. The peso wasn’t alone in falling against the dollar; most Asia-Pac currencies did the same as the greenback […]
Citi Bank Goes Against the Grain; Predicts Bank of Canada Rate Hike on Wednesday
As reported on Friday, the Canadian dollar ended last week with its largest one-day drop against the US dollar since January following disappointing economic data. The data signalled to markets that the Bank of Canada would hold steady on interest rates – currently at 1.0% – at its meeting on Wednesday, and the probability implied […]
Yen at Weakest Since July Following Abe’s Decisive Win and Strength in EUR/GBP Predicted
Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was the decisive winner in this weekend’s Japanese election, paving the way for a continuation of “Abenomics” and extremely loose monetary policy in the world’s third largest economy. Consequently, the Japanese yen weakened on Monday to levels above 114 per dollar for the first time since July. According to the […]
Canadian Dollar Falls Hard After Grim Sales Data Dents Rate Hike Expectations
The Canadian dollar weakened on Friday by the most in nine months against the US dollar after indicators of inflation and consumer activity in Canada fell below market expectations. The “loonie” fell as investors adjusted their portfolios to reflect a lower probability of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates at its October 25th meeting. […]
New Zealand Dollar Continues to Fall; Now Worth Less Than USD 0.7
Holders of New Zealand dollars are still suffering on Friday as the currency continues to fall following last night’s news that New Zealand will be led by a Labour government, with Jacinda Ardern at the helm. In the twenty-four-hour period leading up to 4pm in Wellington, the New Zealand dollar weakened nearly 2.25% against the […]
Yen Unmoved by Exports and NZD Slumps Ahead of Decision on New Zealand’s Future Government
For Asia-Pac currencies, Thursday’s session was dominated by political nervousness in New Zealand and a busy economic calendar. In terms of data, Japan kicked things off a little before 9am in Tokyo with the country’s latest trade figures. Export growth of 14.1% in the year to September matched market expectations, more or less. Exports have […]
Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar Jump After NAFTA Trade Talks Extended
On Tuesday, the Mexican peso had its best day since June and the Canadian dollar rallied after news broke that NAFTA negotiations between the US, Mexico and Canada would be extended into 2018. The peso and “loonie” initially weakened on reports that Mexico and Canada would refuse to yield to US demands and that negotiations […]
SGD and NZD Weaken After Economic Data
The Singapore dollar weakened against the US dollar on Tuesday morning after data showed that non-petro exports plunged 11% in September. Ahead of the data’s release, analysts had forecast an unchanged reading. September’s number means that Singapore’s exports declined on an annual basis by 1.1%, from growth of 16.7% in the year to August. USD/SGD […]
A Higher Australian Dollar Poses No Problems for Exporters, Says Treasurer
Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison expressed no discomfort with the current valuation of the Australian dollar this weekend. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Morrison said that Australian exporters had adapted to a currency that was now 9.3% higher against the US dollar ($0.7873) and nearly 4% higher against the Chinese yuan (¥ 5.1954) than it […]
The Week Ahead for Asia FX
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
Singapore Dollar Weakens Despite Impressive GDP Growth
In spite of robust economic data, the Singapore dollar weakened on Friday to 1.354 per US dollar and to 1.604 per euro, from 1.3515 and 1.5992 respectively. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Friday that preliminary GDP for the third quarter grew by an impressive 6.3%; nearly twice the market forecast of 3.2%. […]
Asia-Pac Gains as Risk Appetite Returns
With the unsurprising exception of the Philippine peso – Asia’s worst performing currency of the year – Asia-Pac’s most actively traded currencies made gains against the US dollar on Tuesday. Although limited, gains were somewhat easy to come by as risk appetite returned after the President of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, held off on formally declaring […]
Turkish Lira Has the Monday Blues; Falls 4 percent on US-Turkey Diplomatic Row
The Turkish lira weakened on Monday morning by as much as 4.2% against the dollar after Sunday’s decision by the Turkish government to immediately suspend all non-immigrant visa services at Turkish consulates and embassies in the US. Turkey’s tit-for-tat decision came just hours after the US announced the same thing. Washington said on Sunday that it […]
US Jobs Report Best Ignored as Hurricanes Wreak Havoc on Economic Data; Dollar Flip-Flops
Wow. What a confusing jobs report. The most important economic data release of the month caused flip-flopping in the US dollar on Friday as a decline in US jobs was offset by solid readings for earnings growth and unemployment. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that non-farm payrolls fell by 33,000 in […]
Australian Dollar Has Tough Day; Will Go Easy Ahead of US Payrolls Data
It’s been a tough twenty-four hours for the Australian dollar. The “Aussie” was hammered after Thursday’s woeful retail sales data, which showed that sales declined in August by 0.6% – the biggest fall in four years. To add insult to injury, previously released data for July was revised down to -0.2%, from 0.0%. AUD/USD has […]
A Weak Rand Won’t Be Helped by Further Rate Cuts; Rand Volatility to Climb
The South African rand is suffering. The rand’s marginal gains on Wednesday against the FX majors did little to mask what has been a horrible month for the currency. Since September 6th, the rand has weakened by 7.6%, 6.3%, 5.0% and 4.2% against the pound (R.18.0), US dollar (R.13.6), euro (R.16.0) and Australian dollar (R.10.65) […]
US Dollar to Return to Long-Term Decline, Says Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy, John Hardy, has added his name to a list of prominent analysts predicting a difficult fourth quarter for the US dollar. On September 27th, ABN Amro expressed its “strong conviction” on future dollar weakness and Nomura reaffirmed its “structural bearish view,” and now, one week later, we have Hardy, […]
RBA Preview: Australian Dollar, Labour Market and House Prices in Focus
At 2:30pm local time (GMT+11) on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest decision on interest rates. No change is expected to the RBA’s cash rate which has been held at a record low of 1.5% since August 2016, and therefore, once again, the spotlight will be shone on the RBA’s accompanying […]
Asian Currencies Have Muted Start to Golden Week
Currencies in Asia have begun the week slowly and also with contrasting performances against the FX majors. Against the dollar, while all of Asia’s ten most active currencies have fallen marginally on Monday morning, many hold slight gains or remain unchanged against the euro. Little movement has been seen against the yen. A mixed bag […]
Citi, ANZ, SocGen: Yen to Suffer as Carry Trade Regains Popularity
Like other low yielding currencies, the Japanese yen is set to weaken in the fourth quarter as a rebound in US political sentiment helps the carry trade regain popularity. At least that is the consensus among banks on Friday. “In the near term we favour being long…against low yielding currencies. As such, we favour buying JPY […]
RBNZ Offers Little for NZD Traders and Trump Trade Is Back On
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold at 1.75% on Thursday morning in its first meeting without former governor Graham Wheeler. Grant Spencer, working under the title of ‘Acting Governor’, delivered the bank’s message to financial markets, and it was a message that gave traders little to get their teeth into. […]
Scotiabank: Thai Baht to Continue to Outperform in Asia
Scotiabank analyst Qi Gao pointed on Wednesday to “solid fundamentals” and Thailand’s large current account surplus as reasons for the Thai baht to continue its reign as Asia’s best performing currency. Thailand’s current account surplus is now an impressive 11.5% of GDP and the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2013, at 3.7%. […]
Political Uncertainty Weighs on New Zealand Dollar and Euro in Aftermath of Elections
General elections in New Zealand and Germany have produced uncertain or surprising outcomes and political parties in both countries must now spend the coming days and weeks striking cross-party deals in the hope of forming coalition governments. In New Zealand, the incumbent National Party, led by Bill English, won 58 seats, putting it just shy […]
Moody’s Downgrade the UK and Elections Begin in New Zealand, Germany
US ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating from Aa1 to Aa2 over concerns for the future of the UK’s public finances. The ratings outlook is now “stable”, from “negative”. Moody’s stripped the UK of its AAA rating back in 2013. “The outlook for the UK’s public finances has weakened significantly since the […]
Philippine Peso Weakness a “Sure Bet” Says Alpari; One Dollar to Buy 53 Pesos at Year-End
On Thursday, the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, maintained what many analysts consider to be a dovish stance by leaving interest rates on hold at a record low of 3.0% and by expressing no discomfort with a national currency that has fallen to its weakest levels since 2006. In the hours […]
Asia-Pac Takes a Hit as Fed Sticks to Guns on Rate Hike, Balance Sheet Normalization
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region fell against the US dollar on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would raise interest rates again this year and would begin shrinking its balance sheet in October. The Fed funds rate was left unchanged at its current range of 1–1.25%. Although the majority of economists had […]
New Zealand Dollar Jumps as New Election Poll Suggests National Party Victory
The New Zealand dollar jumped by three-quarters of a percent against many of the majors on Wednesday evening after the latest election poll showed a clear swing in public opinion back towards the incumbent National Party. New Zealand’s general election will take place in three days’ time, on Saturday September 23rd. NZD/USD is now seen […]
Venezuela Ditches the Dollar, Begins Pricing Oil in Yuan
In retaliation to US sanctions, in its latest weekly report Venezuela’s oil ministry has published prices for the country’s petroleum products in Chinese yuan, rather than US dollars. One barrel of Venezuelan oil will now cost buyers CNY 306.26 – equivalent to USD 46.76. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, at 300 […]
ABM Amro Has “Strong Conviction” on Future Dollar Weakness; Predicts 12 percent Rise in AUD and NZD
New forecasts from Dutch bank ABN Amro see continued weakness in the US dollar heading into and throughout 2018. “We have a strong conviction that the US dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend,” said ABN’s Georgette Boele. The dollar will be hardest hit against “growth sensitive and commodity currencies,” according to the bank, which include […]
Sterling Soars, Yen the Casualty at the End of Eventful Week
The British pound rose on Friday to its highest level against the dollar since the UK’s historic ‘Brexit’ vote in June of last year. By lunchtime in London, the pound was buying $1.3616, capping a brilliant fortnight in which it has risen from rates close to $1.29. On minor profit taking, the currency settled back […]
Missile Test Whipsaws Yen and Swiss Central Bank Speaks on Franc
Investors were rattled on Friday morning following the news that North Korea had launched another missile over northern Japan. After traversing the island of Hokkaido, the missile is said to have travelled a further 1200 miles before landing in the Pacific Ocean. The North Korean regime preceded its test with statements that it would “sink” […]
BMI Research: Malaysian Ringgit to Appreciate as Government Seeks to Balance the Books
The Malaysian ringgit is set to appreciate against the US dollar to 4.1 by the end of next year’s first quarter, according to the team at BMI Research. The dollar-ringgit exchange rate (USD/MYR) had averaged 4.285 in the months of July and August but has fallen sharply (the ringgit has risen) in the first half […]
Singapore Dollar Trades Cautiously but Still Reaches 6-Week High Versus Yen
The Singapore dollar has begun the week cautiously. Against the US dollar, having risen on Friday to a one-year high of 0.7493, the currency of Asia’s ‘Lion City’ conceded some ground on Monday and Tuesday, with SGD/USD falling back below 0.745. A retreat in the pair was likely given last week’s approach to major technical […]
Further Warnings on Hong Kong’s Housing Market: “Be Very Careful” Says Finance Secretary
For the second time in recent months, Hong Kong’s Finance Secretary, Paul Chan, has issued a warning on the country’s housing market. “One has to be very careful if one really wants to buy a property in Hong Kong,” said Secretary Chan on Tuesday morning. “I would not be surprised if there will be a […]
New Zealand Dollar Remains Heavy as Election Looms
The New Zealand dollar sank on Monday morning against the other FX majors amid uncertainty over New Zealand’s future government and on the back of a continuation in weak sales data. Advanced voting in New Zealand’s general election begins on Monday, ahead of election day on September 23rd, and while polls indicate no clear favourite, […]
USD/JPY Finally Breaks 108 on Hurricane Irma Concerns
The trading week ended as it began, with investors selling the dollar and seeking the safety of the yen and Swiss franc. This time, rather than North Korea, investors have been unnerved by Hurricane Irma – a potentially deadly storm, likely to reach Florida on Saturday evening, that is expected to cause significant economic damage. […]
So Much for Currency Manipulation, Yuan at 21-Month High Amid Dollar Bloodbath
So much for currency manipulation. The Chinese yuan surged against the US dollar on Thursday, forcing USD/CNY below 6.45 for the first time since December 2015. The dollar had fetched as many as 6.96 yuan in January. The yuan has started September extremely brightly, picking up where August left off. With only five trading days […]
Asian Currencies Plunge Against CAD After Bank of Canada’s Surprise Rate Hike
To the surprise of many, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday to 1.0%, from 0.75%, which sent currencies in the Asia-Pacific region tumbling against the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada had been expected to raise the cost of borrowing again this year, following a quarter-point hike in July, but most analysts […]
Indian Government’s Crackdown on Black Market Rupees Fails Miserably
India’s experiment with “demonetization” has failed according to figures from the country’s central bank. In a shocking decision on November 8th of last year, India’s government demonetized all 500 and 1000 rupee notes (worth USD 7.78 and USD 15.56 respectively), rendering 86% of currency in circulation worthless. Indians were given just four hours’ notice by […]
Outlook Looks Good for Australian Dollar Despite RBA’s Unchanged Message
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at a record low of 1.5% on Tuesday and offered little for AUD bulls to get their teeth into. The bank remains concerned about weak wage growth and elevated levels of household debt. On Australian economic growth – currently at 1.7% – this “will gradually pick […]
Mixed Opinions on Yen as Currency Gaps Higher Following North Korea’s “Unprecedented” Test
The Japanese yen gapped higher on Monday morning following the test of a hydrogen bomb this weekend by North Korea. The bomb was described on North Korean state media as being one of “unprecedentedly big power.” With current sanctions against Pyongyang seemingly insufficient, in response to the latest provocation, US President Donald Trump said that Washington […]
Canadian Dollar the Star as US Data Fails to Deliver
A pick-up in the US manufacturing sector wasn’t enough to offset a weak employment report on Friday and to prevent the US dollar from sliding to a 26-month low against the Canadian dollar. CAD/USD rallied ahead of the release of the US Labor Department’s August data on expectations of a soft report. It then jumped […]
Rupiah Redenomination Has Government Support but Timing Uncertain
The Indonesian rupiah might soon be getting a long overdue overhaul. A “redenomination bill” has been proposed by Bank Indonesia that would prepare the way to scrap as many as four zeros from the country’s rupiah notes. The bill has gained wide support in government, although the timing of its implementation remains uncertain. Importantly, any redenomination would […]
Data Fails to Lift AsiaPac Currencies
A better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI failed to lift the yuan or Australian dollar on Thursday morning against a US dollar determined to end the month in the green. The Chinese PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 51.7 for August, slightly ahead of the market forecast of 51.3 and July’s reading of […]
AUD/NZD Breaches 1.1, Bank of Korea to Meet and US Dollar Shows Its Metal in Recovery
On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar-to-New Zealand dollar exchange rate came within three pips of making a sixteen-month high after it finally breached 1.1 – the major technical resistance level in this rate. A rally slightly above 1.1 on March 16th (to 1.1019) was quickly rejected and preceded a three-month decline in AUD/NZD to levels […]
Geopolitics Take Centre Stage, Gives Lift to Yen but US Dollar Remains on the Ropes
Investors fled to the safety of gold, government bonds and the Japanese yen on Tuesday as geopolitics took centre stage. After North Korea fired a missile over Japan, money flooded into gold, which rallied to a nine-month high of $1,325, and into yen, which strengthened to the low 108s against the dollar. Prices for Treasuries, […]
Baht’s Climb Not Yet Done, Says New Forecast
Asia’s best performing currency, the Thai baht, isn’t done yet, said both Scotiabank and Standard Chartered in recent days. USD/THB, which has fallen (the baht has risen) 7% this year, is set for a further 7% fall to levels around ฿31 in 2018 according to Standard Chartered, from Monday’s exchange rate of ฿33.25. Analysts at […]
Euro Surges Post-Jackson Hole but Swedish Krona Still Number One
The euro rallied strongly on Friday, climbing by more than a percent against the dollar to 1.1941 – the euro’s highest level since January 2015. Against the British pound, the single currency reached levels unseen since October 2009, at 0.9269. Investors and traders rushed into euros after ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech at the Jackson […]
NZD/USD Might Fall to 0.69 in Coming Weeks, Says UOB
On Wednesday on BestExchangeRates, we highlighted the troubles of the New Zealand dollar and described how the Treasury’s downgrade of economic growth forecasts sent the currency to multi-month lows against several major currencies. We also added this short summary of the kiwi’s outlook and year so far: “The New Zealand dollar has come unstuck in […]
Korean Won Leads Asian Currencies Higher
Most Asian currencies ended Wednesday higher against the dollar, albeit on a rather unspectacular day of trading. With a few exceptions, markets traded quietly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (24-26 August) at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi might give important updates on monetary policy. The star of the day […]
Government Forecasts Add to New Zealand Dollar Woes, Currency at 14-Month Low Versus EUR
The New Zealand government piled misery onto the New Zealand dollar on Wednesday with its announcement that it had revised downward its forecasts for economic growth this year and next. Treasury officials said that growth for the year to June 2017 would likely come in at 2.6%, from earlier expectations of 3.2%, and have forecast […]
Barclays: China’s Housing Slowdown to Drag Australian Dollar Lower
Barclays FX research team have this week reaffirmed their view that the Australian dollar will trade in a flat or downward trend for the rest of this year. As of 2pm GMT on Tuesday, the currency was buying USD 0.792. Barclays believe that markets are yet to price in the Australian dollar risk presented by China’s […]
Korean Won to Struggle in Any Case, Says Nomura
For a portion of 2017, the South Korean won had been Asia’s best performing currency. Over the past month, it has, however, deviated from what has been a stable path for Asian currencies generally. Between July 27th and Friday’s close, the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Thai baht rose against the dollar by 1.8%, 1.2% […]
CAD, AUD, NOK, BRL End the Week Strong After Oil Jumps on Further Bullish News
A near-$2 rise in the price of oil supported the so-called ‘commodities currencies’ on Friday, many of which gained close to a percent against the US dollar and made respectable gains against the euro and Japanese yen. Oil’s 3.9% rise to $48.74 per barrel (NYMEX crude futures, September delivery) followed news that US and Canadian […]
Brazil’s Real to Appreciate Despite Political Uncertainty
It seems not long ago that forecasts for dollar-to-real were in the 4s and 5s. Much has changed however, and despite political uncertainty prevailing in Brazil, the real is now set to move to more expensive levels, at least according to BNP Paribas’ chief Latin America strategist, Marcelo Carvalho. Carvalho believes that the real will strengthen […]
Yen Falls as Risk Appetite Returns
The yen fell by nearly a percent yesterday against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall in six weeks – as investors regained their appetite for risk amid an easing of the tense situation surrounding North Korea. The yen, which has long been considered the FX world’s premier safe haven, typically falls in value […]
Banks in Agreement: Euro to Reach Parity Versus Pound
HSBC and Morgan Stanley are in agreement: The euro will rally to reach parity (1.0) with the British pound within the next 4-8 months. This consensus has been formed after Morgan Stanley this week released their latest forecasts which show EUR/GBP at 1.02 by the end of March next year. HSBC had already publicly forecast […]
Philippine Peso Won’t “Free Fall” Says Central Bank Governor After Currency’s Fall to 11-Year Low
“Let’s calm down,” said the governor of the Philippines’ central bank on Sunday as he sought to settle investor nerves following a fall in the Philippine peso to an eleven-year low against the dollar. The peso fell on Friday to 51.14 against USD – a valuation not seen since August 2006 – and has fallen again on […]
Little Chance of Another US Rate Hike This Year as CPI Disappoints Again
The implied probability of a further hike in US interest rates this year declined on Friday to 35%, down from probabilities above 40% one day earlier. This fairly drastic adjustment in market expectations for US rates occurred following inflation data which, remarkably, came in below market expectations for the fifth consecutive month. The US dollar […]
Yen at 8-Week High as Investors Flee to Safe Havens and Singapore’s Economy Outperforms
Amid growing tensions between the US and North Korea, investors fled on Thursday to the safety of the Japanese yen, gold and Treasuries. Earlier this week, US president Donald Trump had promised to lay “fire and fury” on North Korea should any attempt be made by the rogue nation to harm the US. Not one […]
Hong Kong Dollar Surprises with Best Day in 18-Months and RBNZ to Stay on Hold Until 2019
On Wednesday, a single explosive hour formed the basis of what became the Hong Kong dollar’s best day since February 2016. A little after 6am in London and 1pm in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar suddenly took off, forcing USD/HKD down from levels around 7.826 to 7.8116. And while a 0.18% move might seem negligible […]
Strength in Thai Baht Only Temporary, Says Finance Minister
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
Drama in Asia as the Yuan Spikes to 10-Month High Amid Speculation of a Wider Trading Band
Tuesday’s Asian session was stirred by a surprise surge in the Chinese yuan. Starting around 9:30am in Beijing, the yuan began rallying strongly against the dollar, with offshore rates declining (the yuan strengthening) to 6.7024 by 1pm, from rates earlier in the session around 6.73. Onshore yuan easily broke the 6.7 level and as of writing […]
NZD/USD Expected to Fall to 0.71 by Year-End, Inflation Expectations Weaken Kiwi Ahead of RBNZ Meeting
The New Zealand dollar fell back below $0.74 against the US dollar during Monday’s Asian session after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that respondents in their latest quarterly survey of inflation expectations were more pessimistic than they had been three months ago. Business managers and professionals now see annual inflation running at 1.8% […]
Dollar Has Best Day Since January After Solid Jobs Report
The US dollar ended the week on a high, posting its best day in more than six months following Friday’s solid US employment data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged from levels in the high 92s to the high 93s after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls had risen by 209,000 […]
Hong Kong Dollar Stability Is Shattered as Currency On Course For Another Bad Week
For much of 2017 it’s been one-way traffic in the market for Hong Kong dollars. USD/HKD rose (the Hong Kong dollar fell) in fourteen of the seventeen weeks prior to July 7th, blowing through the midpoint of its allowed 7.75-7.85 range with ease. The currency had, however, stabilized over much of the past month – […]
Rupee Leaps to a 2-Year High Following RBI Decision
As expected by roughly seventy percent of economists, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key interest rate to 6% from 6.25% at Wednesday’s meeting. Four of the six members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee voted for the change. Interest rates have not been this low in India since 2010. The Indian rupee, […]
Uncertainty Ahead of RBI Rate Decision as Rupee Approaches Significant Technical Level
Of fifteen economists surveyed by Mint, eleven expect India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting. Of a further fifty-six economists polled by Reuters, forty expect the same. With no unanimous prediction, this makes rupee volatility highly likely before and after the meeting. The announcement […]
RBA Stay Put and Moody’s Are Unhappy with South Africa’s Monetary Policy, Rand Falls to Long-Term Lows
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) surprised markets in July when it cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 6.75% – the country’s first rate cut since 2012. Prior to the decision, of the fifty economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg, only three had predicted a move to lower the cost of borrowing. This rate […]
Yuan and Yen Valuations Currently on Point, Says IMF
The IMF said on Friday that the current valuations of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen are broadly consistent with fundamentals. In its latest External Sector Report – a yearly assessment of currency valuations as they relate to each country’s current account balance, external balance sheet, capital flows and reserves – the IMF said that […]
Canadian Economy Is Red Hot, Further Rate Hikes Likely to Boost CAD
In stark contrast to the US dollar, which continues to suffer, the Canadian dollar is offering investors nothing but hope at present. The Canadian dollar was the best performing FX major in June and with only one trading day left of the month looks certain to take that crown again in July. Despite taking a […]
There’s a “Perfect Storm” for Swiss Franc Depreciation, Currency at 18-Month Low Versus Euro
The recent plunge in the Swiss franc continued on Friday with the currency falling to new multi-month lows against several of the other majors. Against the euro, Switzerland’s currency fell to an eighteen-month low of €0.88 (EUR/CHF 1.1363). The franc has fallen in near-vertical fashion this week and the pace of its fall has only […]
Thai Central Bank Advises Hedging Baht Appreciation and New Forecast for Philippine Peso
In an acknowledgement of the Thai baht’s rapid rise against the US dollar this year, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, Mathee Supapongse, said this week that Thai companies should consider hedging against future baht appreciation. Against the dollar, the baht has risen 7% so far in 2017, making the currency the second best […]
“Most important Data Release in Australia” Turns Aussie Dollar Cold, Now a Great Time to Convert AUD
Headline CPI growth in Australia fell below market expectations on Wednesday, disappointing those seeking reasons for potential RBA hawkishness at their August 1st meeting. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday morning that consumer prices rose in the second quarter by just 0.2% – down on the market forecast for 0.4% and below […]
A Scare for NZD as Contagious Disease Is Found in New Zealand Cattle for the First Time
Within the past several hours, a scare relating to the New Zealand dairy industry has caused sudden moves in the New Zealand dollar. Between 1:45pm and 2:15pm (Auckland, GMT+12), NZD/USD, NZD/EUR and NZD/JPY each fell by 0.4% – equivalent to falls of roughly 30 pips, 25 pips and 35 pips respectively. The moves happened quickly […]
South African Rand Outlook: ZAR Makes Back Losses Following Surprise Rate Cut but Is Predicted to Fall in Coming Months
Early on Monday morning, South Africa’s rand is holding on to Friday’s gains, with USD/ZAR remaining calmly within the low 12.9s. The rand surprised many investors on Friday when it outperformed other emerging market currencies and made back all losses post-Thursday’s surprise rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The central bank lowered […]
Sterling Predicted to Fall 15 percent Before Year-End and RBA Deputy Cools Australian Dollar
The British pound is set to fall by as much as 15% by the end of 2017 according to Guy Petcho of Voya Investment Management. Petcho, who formerly was a part of George Soros’ investing team, said in an interview with Reuters on Friday that a turn for the worse in UK economic growth will […]
Yen Falls After BoJ Admit Defeat on Inflation and Can’t Stop Australian Dollar as Currency Approaches 0.80 vs. USD
Officials at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said today that they were pushing back the time frame for achieving their 2% inflation target to the end of 2019, marking yet another defeat in the bank’s long-term battle against deflation. When the target was introduced by BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013, it was forecast that […]
Korean Won Holds Yellen-Inspired Gains After Interest Rate Decision
The Korean won gained nearly 1% against the US dollar yesterday and by doing so recorded its best day since April. USD/KRW ended the New York session at 1137.4. The move took the won’s 2017 gain against the dollar to 6%. Against the euro, the won gained 1.4% – its best day since November – […]
A Strong Baht Concerns Thailand’s Exporters, Currency Reaches 17-Month High Versus Yen
Thailand’s baht remains one of Asia’s best performing currencies this year. Against the US dollar, the baht has gained more than 5% in 2017 and is now buying $0.029, putting it back at 2015 levels. Against the Japanese yen, although the baht has gained only half as much in percentage terms as it has against […]
Yen Falls for Fourth Consecutive Week as BoJ Works to Drive Rates Down, Says Will Buy an “Unlimited” Number of JGBs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a battle to maintain extreme levels of monetary policy stimulus – a battle which, to win, must necessarily weaken the Japanese yen. On Friday, the yen locked in its fourth consecutive weekly loss against the US dollar, its seventh such loss against the New Zealand dollar, and it […]
Hong Kong Dollar Fall Continues, Now at 18-Month Low
Ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls data, the Hong Kong dollar’s fall continues unabated. This week the currency is holding above 7.81 against the US dollar and reached an eighteen-month low (a USD/HKD high) on Monday of 7.8140. Hong Kong dollar weakness continues to be driven by the ever-widening gap between local and US interbank […]
ABN Amro Upgrade Rupee Forecast, Think Currency Will Finish 2017 Strongly
Dutch bank ABN Amro have this week upgraded their forecast for the Indian rupee. The bank now believes that the year will end with the rupee buying 0.0155 US dollars (USD/INR 64.5), and while this is not a significant increase on the rupee’s current valuation at 0.0154 (USD/INR 65.0), it marks a significant upward revision […]
Taiwan Dollar Rally Is Set to End, Says Survey
By rallying 6.5% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, the Taiwan dollar so far claims the crown of 2017’s best performing Asian currency. The Taiwan dollar’s rally is likely to have ended however, according to the results of a Bloomberg survey of foreign exchange traders who were asked their views […]
Will the RBA Follow Hawkish Lead Set by Other Central Banks?
At 04:30 GMT on Tuesday, traders will learn the latest decision on interest rates by Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The decision will also be accompanied by a statement from the bank. While rates are expected to be unchanged at their record low of 1.5%, there is a sense of anticipation […]
Yen Falls Intra-Day After Japan’s Ruling Party is Crushed in Tokyo Election
With all votes counted, it has been confirmed that Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has been crushed in Sunday’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election. The TMA is the prefectural parliament of Tokyo and its members are elected every four years. The LDP, who are led by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, won […]
Philippine Peso at 10-Year Low After USD/PHP Finally Breaks Resistance at 50.50
This week the Philippine peso fell against the dollar to levels not seen since September 2006. Recent peso weakness, driven by a deterioration in the state of the Philippines’ current account, finally pushed USD/PHP above the 50.50 resistance level which had kept the exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP reached highs of 50.72 on Thursday but did […]
Ringgit Completes Turnaround, Is Asia’s Best Performing Currency in Second Quarter
The Malaysian ringgit was Asia’s worst performing currency in 2016, having suffered from a slump in the oil price, a general deterioration in Malaysia’s economic outlook and a far-reaching political and economic scandal involving the country’s Prime Minister, Najib Razak, and billions of lost dollars from Malaysia’s state development fund. With that said, in 2017, […]
Yen Falls to 1-Month Low Ahead of Yellen Speech
“Hedge funds are selling yen this week, and positive comments from Yellen could give them an excuse to sell even more,” said Kaneo Ogino of FX research group Global-Info Co yesterday. Ogino’s comments came at the end of yesterday’s New York session which ended with the yen trading at ¥111.84 against the dollar, marking a […]
Philippine Peso Jumps on Profit Taking and Reduction in US Rate Expectations
The Philippine peso jumped against the US dollar on Friday, forming a strong reversal signal away from the 50.50 level which has kept the USD/PHP exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP had opened at 50.38 on the week’s final day but fell in each of the Asia, Europe and US sessions to end the week […]
Sterling Set for Significant Fall, Says Investment Guru
In an interview with CNBC journalists on Thursday, Beat Wittmann of Porta Advisors – a man with more than 30 years of investment experience, including time spent at UBS, Credit Suisse and Julius Baer – expressed his belief that the British pound is set for further significant falls over the coming year as a result […]
Australian Dollar Outlook: Citi Prediction for Lower Iron Ore Prices Suggests Long-Term Decline in Currency’s Value
To the glee of those holding Australian currency or AUD denominated assets, in recent weeks the Australian dollar has reversed its second-quarter trend. Having fallen almost 5.5% between late March and mid-May, largely because of a tumble in the price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, the AUD/USD exchange rate has spent much of the […]
Hong Kong Authorities Post Warning on “Dangerous Situation” in Housing Market and RBNZ Keep Cool on Interest Rates
“We have to warn our people about the dangerous situation of the property market,” said Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, today. In an interview with Bloomberg’s Haslinda Amin, Chan expressed concern about a potential housing market correction in Hong Kong, which is currently the world’s most expensive city for property. In 2016, Hong Kong […]
EM Asia Currencies Fall Following Moderately Hawkish Fed Speak
A rally in the US dollar prompted by moderately hawkish Fed speakers pushed emerging market Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lower on Tuesday. Asian currencies from developed economies but which nonetheless remain second tier and under the “emerging” umbrella, such as the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, […]
Australian Dollar Falls but Recovers Following Moody’s Downgrade of Australia’s Top Banks
On Monday, US ratings agency Moody’s cut its credit ratings on Australia’s four largest banks by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1. The banks – Westpac, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank – retain their “investment grade” status but are no longer top-rated by the agency. Less well known, smaller banks that were downgraded […]
Malaysian Ringgit Trapped in Range Versus Pound, Reverses from Five-Month High
Having been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies for some time, the Malaysian ringgit has turned a corner recently; a small corner, but a corner nonetheless. The ringgit is now clearly trending upwards against the US dollar, albeit on low volatility, and is up nearly 6% since lows in mid-November. One ringgit now buys more […]
Yen to Fall Most Versus New Zealand Dollar, Says Bank of America Merrill Lynch After BoJ Maintains Status Quo
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) stuck with the status quo on Friday, choosing to preserve extreme monetary policy stimulus with the goal of boosting Japanese growth and inflation. Inflation, which has been the bane of central bankers in Japan for much of the past two decades, remains low. Statistics Japan said in May that annualized […]
New Zealand Dollar Finally Turns Following FOMC and Weaker Than Expected GDP
A combination of this morning’s FOMC meeting and weaker than expected GDP data pushed the New Zealand dollar down against a broad group of currencies on Thursday. Data released by Stats NZ on Thursday morning showed that GDP rose 0.5% in the first quarter, which although higher than a 0.4% print in the fourth quarter, was comfortably […]
Australian Dollar Unmoved by Fall in Consumer Sentiment
This morning, investors learned that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute (WMI) survey of Australian consumer sentiment fell last month by 1.8% and remained in “pessimist” territory for the seventh consecutive month. The survey is seen by many analysts as an important gauge of the Australian public’s willingness to spend, which is itself an important driver of the […]
Canadian Dollar Surges as Central Banker Hints at Rate Hike and Hong Kong Dollar Hits 16-Month Low
Very early this morning in Asia, Bank of Canada (BOC) Council member Carolyn Wilkins lit a fire under the Canadian dollar with her remarks to an audience at the Asper School of Business in Winnipeg, in which she hinted at a possible rate hike by the BOC. Wilkins said that “as growth continues…the Governing Council […]
South Africa’s Rating Downgraded Again but Currency Remains Stable
On Friday, US ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of South Africa to Baa3 from Baa2 and assigned the country a negative outlook. The rating change concludes a review of South Africa by the agency which began on April 3rd. A Baa3 rating keeps South Africa at “investment grade” with Moody’s, one notch […]
New Zealand Dollar Strength Continues, Reaches 7-Month High vs. Canadian Dollar
The New Zealand dollar was the best performing of the FX majors in May. By the month’s end, the currency had gained 2.9% against the US dollar, beating a resurgent euro, which gained 2.6%, into first place. The rapid appreciation of New Zealand’s currency, which has been attributed by Citi Bank to improving trade, strength […]
Sterling Tumbles as a Hung UK Parliament Most Likely with Half of Votes Counted
The UK is on course for a hung parliament following yesterday’s general election and the British currency has tumbled to multi-week lows against most currencies. As of 3am GMT, with around half of the votes counted, it looks fairly likely that the ruling Conservative party will win the most seats, but that it will fall […]
UK to Vote, ECB Decision and Comey Testimony Make It a Big Day for FX and Politics
Significant exchange rate volatility should be expected on Thursday and Friday with the following major events on the calendar. UK General Election GBP/USD 3 Month Chart On Thursday, British voters will go to the polling stations to vote in their general election. Campaigning in the election has been interrupted by terrorist attacks in London […]
Australian Dollar at 1-Month Highs Following Better Than Expected GDP
The Australian dollar jumped 0.5% against the US dollar to 0.754 within minutes of this morning’s release of better than expected GDP data. The data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, showed that Q1 GDP grew at 0.3% – slightly stronger than the forecast for 0.2% but a significant fall from growth of 1.1% […]
RBA on Hold and It’s Decision Time for the Philippine Peso as Currency Rallies to 7-Week High
In a decision widely expected by the market, Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), maintained the country’s interest rate at its record low of 1.5% today. In an accompanying statement, the RBA’s Governor, Philip Lowe, said that “annualized GDP growth is expected to have slowed in the March quarter,” but that “growth […]
US Dollar Index Falls to 7-Month Low on Poor Jobs Data
The US dollar fell across the board yesterday and the Dollar Index (USDX/DXY) fell to 96.67 – its lowest in nearly seven months – following a highly disappointing US jobs report. For traders, the monthly report, which includes numbers for US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings growth, as well as the unemployment and participation rates, […]
Surge in China’s Currency to 7-Month Highs Has Unknown Cause
China’s yuan was Asia’s best performing currency in May. Offshore yuan, which is traded in international financial centres like Hong Kong, Singapore and London, rose 2.3% against the US dollar during the month. And yesterday, the first trading day in June, the yuan rallied again, making further gains of 0.3% and forcing the dollar-to-yuan exchange […]
AUD Falls Again, Near 1-Year Lows Versus EUR as China Data Beats Australian in the Battle of Greatest Influencer
The Australian dollar fell sharply on Thursday morning, adding to across-the-board losses on Wednesday, as negative economic data from China easily beat positive Australian data in the game for greatest influence, and as iron ore fell to $55 per ton in the NYMEX futures market. As of 03:30 GMT on Thursday, the Australian dollar sits […]
Pound Falls as Shocking Poll Data Suggests UK Should Brace for a Hung Parliament
Late on Tuesday night, the British pound fell two-thirds of a cent against the dollar to 1.2789 following results from the latest YouGov poll, which indicate that the UK’s ruling Conservative party will fall 16 seats short of an outright majority and that Britain faces a hung parliament after its general election on June 8th. […]
New Zealand Dollar Is Best Performer in May but Big Bank Predicts Lower Value Ahead
Of the FX majors, the New Zealand dollar has been the best performer in May. At the end of yesterday’s New York session, with NZD/USD at 0.754, the pair is up 2.9% since May 1st. By comparison, the kiwi’s closest cousin, the Australian dollar, is down 0.5% against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar […]
Rand Tumbles Intra-Day Despite President Zuma Surviving Bid to Oust Him
On Monday, the South African rand opened sharply higher against the dollar upon Sunday’s late news that several members of the African National Congress party’s top leadership had failed in a bid to remove their party leader and South African president Jacob Zuma. ZAR/USD gapped up to 0.0787 at the open, up 1.2% on Friday’s […]
Thai Baht at 22-Month Highs as Money Pours into Emerging Markets
The Thai baht had its best day yesterday since March and has forced itself to 22-month and 15-month highs against the US dollar and Australian dollar respectively. USD/THB fell by 0.55% yesterday to 34.15, finally breaking the 34.25 level that had held the pair up since April 3rd. And the baht has strengthened again this […]
New Six-Month Highs in Singapore Dollar as Government Predicts Above-2 percent Growth in 2017
The Singapore dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate reached six-month highs this morning at 0.7231 following new predictions from Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) that economic growth in the country will exceed 2% this year. “Barring the materialization of downside risks, GDP growth is likely to come in higher than the 2% achieved in 2016,” […]
Moody’s Downgrades China Debt, Adds Another Weight onto Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar has fallen this morning following a downgrade of China’s debt rating by US ratings agency Moody’s. The giant Asian nation has been assigned a new rating of A1 (from Aa3) by the agency on the grounds that its “financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.” It is the first time […]
AUD/USD Back at 0.75 but That Doesn’t Change Bearish Outlook
As of writing, a little before 5am GMT on Tuesday, the Australian dollar has reached 0.75 versus the US dollar. This psychologically important level will be welcomed by Australian dollar bulls who, more than most, have suffered during the past two months after watching the currency decline from 0.7750 to 0.7328 between March 21st and […]
Merkel Adds Fuel to Euro Rally, Says Euro “Too Weak” for Germany
In the past several hours, the euro has surged following the release of comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has said that the single currency is “too weak” for Germany – weakness which is “due to the ECB’s policy” and which “makes German goods…comparatively cheap.” As of writing at 13:35 GMT, the euro is […]
Malaysian Ringgit’s Failure to Rally Despite Positive News Could be Important Signal for Currency’s Future Direction
In Conan Doyle’s Hound of the Baskervilles, the legendary detective Sherlock Holmes solves a crime using his knowledge of what didn’t happen. Specifically, when Holmes learns that the victim’s dog had not barked during the night of the theft of a prized racehorse, Holmes knows that the offender is likely known to the dog – an insight […]
Startling Move in Brazilian Real Highlights Risk of Holding Emerging Market Currencies
Brazil’s financial markets are in shock following further revelations of bribery and corruption involving the country’s president, Michel Temer. President Temer was yesterday forced to deny newspaper reports that he had discussed paying off a witness in an ongoing corruption investigation. And in a day of full scale political turmoil, two MPs began impeachment proceedings […]
Dollar Battered and Fed Rate Hike in Doubt as Trump Jolts Markets
The likelihood of a US rate hike in June is falling fast, as is the US dollar. Just one week ago, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve hiking US interest rates at next month’s meeting – a probability derived from prices in Fed funds futures contracts – stood near 85%. As of Monday, that probability had […]
Another 6 percent Fall in AUD/USD Exchange Rate Coming in 2017, Says Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted yesterday that the Australian dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate will fall to 0.7 within 2017 – a move that would mark a near-6% fall from yesterday’s closing rate of 0.7426. Analysts at the bank have come to their conclusion following an in-depth analysis of Australian steel production rates and port […]
Commodities Support AUD, NZD, INR and Thai Baht Boosted by Better Than Expected GDP
The price of WTI crude oil rose by almost a dollar yesterday to $48.79 – it’s sixth daily gain in the past seven – and prices in the futures market for 62% iron ore held above $60 per metric ton, both of which gave a boost to commodities currencies. Oil rallied after energy ministers from […]
Make the Most of Japan’s Spring Time Charm: Yen Great Value Against Korean Won, Taiwan Dollar, Pound and Euro
In the four-weeks leading up to last Friday’s close (May 12th), the Japanese yen had been one of the world’s worst performing currencies against the US dollar, falling 4.3% within that time. The yen’s weakness during that period marks one hell of a turnaround from the four-weeks immediately prior, in which the yen was one […]
Sterling Falls After 4-Week Winning Streak, Fails to Penetrate $1.30 Despite Disappointing US Data
It was a quiet day in markets on Friday. The VIX index closed at 10.4, marginally higher than Monday’s dismal close in the index at 9.8, but remains near to multi-decade lows. Commodities prices – key drivers of CAD, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies – traded in narrow ranges. US WTI oil traded within […]
Korean Won Makes Its Move, Malaysia in Focus and Hong Kong Dollar Still Falling
The Korean won finally made its move yesterday away from the 1130-to-1140 range against the US dollar. The exchange rate for USD/KRW had been trapped between the two prices for much of the previous ten trading days. At the end of yesterday’s New York session – the traditional end of the FX trading day – […]
A Decline in New Zealand Dollar Likely as RBNZ Disappoint, Still Sees No Rate Hike Until 2019
The New Zealand dollar has fallen more than a cent against the US dollar following this morning’s RBNZ statement. As expected by the market, New Zealand’s official cash rate was kept at its record low of 1.75%, but the dovish tone of the RBNZ’s accompanying statements has surprised many. “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for […]
Korean Won Stable Following Moon Jae-in Victory
Moon Jae-in has today been declared the next president of South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate won 41.1% of the vote according to the country’s National Election Commission. All of the votes have now been counted. Moon saw off Hong Jun-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo – the Liberty Party and People’s Party candidates – […]
Australian Dollar Getting Cheaper by the Day as Further Economic Data Drags Currency Lower
There is good news for those in the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, the UK, New Zealand, Taiwan, India, Mexico and just about anywhere at all, and that news is: that the Australian dollar is offering itself up for sale, in a buy 1 get all special. If you’ve always dreamt of cuddling that koala, buying […]
Traders Bought the Rumour, Sold the Fact as Euro Falls Slightly on Macron Victory
Former Rothschild banker and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is the new French president. Macron secured almost precisely two-thirds of yesterday’s vote (66.06%) and, in doing so, easily fended off his competition, Marine Le Pen, who secured one-third (33.94%). At 39, Macron will become France’s youngest ever president. He also becomes the first president since 1958 […]
Dollar Falls Despite Positive Jobs Data and Crumbling Commodities Still Taking Their Toll
A rebound in US non-farm payrolls data surprisingly saw the US dollar fall yesterday against all of the other majors, with the exception of the Japanese yen. Yesterday’s headline reading for April of +211k new jobs stood in stark contrast to March’s number of only +75k (revised lower from +98k). March’s figure had missed market […]
Euro Is Flying Ahead of French Vote, Markets No Longer Concerned About Le Pen
Judging by asset prices, investors are no longer concerned about a Marine Le Pen victory in Sunday’s French election. As of writing, at 05:20 GMT on Friday morning, the euro is buying almost 1.1 US dollars (EUR/USD 1.0989) and is at its highest level against the ‘greenback’ since November-9th, the day of Donald Trump’s surprise […]